Unfortunately we didn't get around to starting this blog until the Penguins had already lost in the playoffs and there were only two days left until the NFL draft. Regardless, we're here now, and are going to work on getting information out there with some actual analysis rather than the little that we can fit in one, 140 character tweet. Without further ado, I present The 'Burgh Report's first post on the new blog, as well as our first 2012 NFL mock draft.
One last thing: In this mock I'm not going to include trades. I'm keeping everyone where they are for this first mock. I'll throw out some trade ideas in another mock at some point before the draft.
Now, let's begin:
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck (QB Stanford)
Today the Colts announced that Luck was their man and that they would go ahead and draft him. He is by no means going to fix all the problems they have following their purge of veterans. They have questions at RB, WR, TE, LB, NT, S and CB, meaning it could be another long year for Colts' fans. It wouldn't shock me to see them back near the top in 2013.
Other Options: None.
2. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III (QB Baylor)
The Redskins didn't trade up here for the hell of it. They'll take the guy who they hope can help turn this once proud franchise back towards glory by picking RG3. He has all the intangibles of the kind of player you want to lead an offense, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Mike Shanahan will need to come up with a new offensive scheme if he plans to properly utilize Griffin. Plus they have other holes to fill and need to get their new franchise QB better weapons on the outside if they expect to compete in the already difficult NFC East.
Other Options: None.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil (OT USC)
This is the first pick where we could potentially see a trade or a surprise pick. If a team wants Tannehill, they'll look at the Vikings at 3 and the Browns at 4 as possible partners. But this mock isn't about trades, this is who I think they will/should pick, and that player is Matt Kalil. He's the best offensive line prospect we've seen since Jake Long or Joe Thomas and looks to be one of these guys who starts from day one and becomes a perennial Pro Bowler. He's one of the safest picks in the draft, but Morris Claiborne remains a possibility if they consider their need at CB to outweigh one at OT. Other Options: Claiborne or Justin Blackmon but the value doesn't match up as well.
4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson (RB Alabama)
Another team that may decide to trade down. But eventually the Browns need to stay where they are and take a player that will actually win them some games. Trent Richardson is that guy. He's the most complete back since Adrian Peterson and would help take enough pressure off of Colt McCoy for Holmgren to fairly evaluate him and decide if he can be the franchise QB in Cleveland for the next decade.
Other Options: Justin Blackmon, Morris Claiborne and Ryan Tannehill. All of whom pale in comparison as prospects. They'd be foolish to give up on McCoy without ever seeing how he does when he has weapons. Justin Blackmon isn't worth the 4th pick, and it's time Cleveland used one of these high picks to add firepower and put a little fear into a defense, rather than always taking the safe pick.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne (CB LSU)
Tampa is moving Ronde Barber to safety and have been actively trying to find a trade partner for Aqib Talib who has serious off field issues. They can take the guy most consider to be the best CB in this class and who should be a starter from day one. His 4 on the Wonderlic test sends me a bad message about his work ethic, not just that he can't do logic problems. I admit playing DB is more about instinct than intelligence, but I do worry about taking a guy so high when he clearly didn't put the work in in the classroom.
Other Options: They'd love to get Richardson if he fell, but I doubt that happens. Justin Blackmon is an option that not many have really considered.
6. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon (WR Oklahoma St.)
Let me say this, Justin Blackmon is not as good as AJ Green was last year and maybe not even Julio Jones. He's has been pushed up the board this year simply because he's the best of this class, not necessarily because the value matches up. A good number of scouts, GMs and NFL Executives actually consider Michael Floyd the better prospect, so it remains possible that the Rams could surprise us and go with the other man out of Notre Dame. Either way, WR is a glaring need for them, and Bradford desperately needs someone to get the ball to on the outside.
Other Options: Still possible they could trade up to 3 or 4 for Richardson or even for Blackmon if they're worried about someone else swooping in. Of course Michael Floyd remains an option as well and possibly even Fletcher Cox.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Fletcher Cox (DT Mississippi St.)
I actually really doubt this pick happens as I have it laid out right now. The Eagles are really high on Cox who is the best defensive lineman in this class, so they could easily trade up given the extra picks they have to use in trades. But this mock assumes no one will move (which of course is not how the draft will actually go down, but bare with me). For now, the Jaguars get a great pass rusher who can shore up that front line and help improve upon a defense that finished in the top 11 in the four major defensive categories last year.
Other Options: They deperately need playmakers and Michael Floyd fits the bill. I've seen Fletcher Cox's name thrown in here as well but the most intriguing idea I've heard is that Jaguars might take Stephon Gilmore with the seventh pick. Jacksonville has reached for guys in years past, so this does make some sense, but I will say the value doesn't match up for a pick that high. They'd be better served to trade down if they're high on him and take him in the 13-16 range.
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill (QB Texas A&M)
Of all the prospects in this years draft, Tannehill has this highest bust potential. However, the Dolphins need a QB, and if that means reaching, they'll do it. I doubt they'll need to trade up but it's always possible depending on how high the Eagles actually are on him.
Other Options: None. I'd be absolutely shocked if they didn't take Tannehill.
9. Carolina Panthers: Michael Floyd (WR Notre Dame)
Steve Smith isn't getting any younger and if Cam Newton is to continue his success he has to be able to develop as pockey passer. Bring in the 6'4" playmaker in Floyd who can play opposite Smith, and not we relied on heavily given their great running game.
Other Options: Luke Kuechly, Fletcher Cox if available, David DeCastro, Melvin Ingram or Quinton Coples.
10. Buffalo Bills: Riley Reiff (OT Iowa)
With the loss of Demetress Bell, the Bills will look to shore up their offensive line, especially if Michael Floyd is off the board. Reiff is the 2nd best tackle in this draft and should be able to start from day one. He has shown good athleticism and burst off the line, with great mirroring ability in space. He'd help keep Fitzpatrick up right and create lanes for Fred Jackson, which will be paramount if the Bills want to build on their promising 2011 campaign that came to a screeching halt mid season amidst a slew of injuries.
Other Options: Again, they'd love for Floyd to fall to them, but Luke Kuechly and David DeCastro could also warrant considerations, though admittedly play positions of lesser need. Melvin Ingram could be great opposite Mario Williams, so I'm sure they'll look at that as an option as well.
11. Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro (G Stanford)
DeCastro is one of these guys who can be expected to start day one and become a pernnial Pro Bowler. The Chiefs haven't had a guy on the line like this since the days of Will Shields. He's a guy who compares to Alan Faneca and Steve Hutchincon which is about as good a company as you can get playing Guard. DeCastro one of the few sure fire guys in this class, which makes a very attractive option for Scott Pioli and Co.
Other Options: Romeo Crennel could also target the defense and look at Melvin Ingram to play opposite Tamba Hali, or look for a NT and take Dontari Poe. Luke Kuechly is more of a 4-3 linebacker but if the Chiefs like him enough don't be surprised if he's the pick either.
12. Seattle Seahawks: Luke Kuechly (ILB Boston College)
Kuechly was a tackling machine at Boston College and one of the most effective middle linebackers in college football history. With the loss of David Hawthorne in free agency, Seattle would be well served to take the top linebacker in this class who seems to resemble Brian Urlacher in the middle of a 4-3 defense. One of the safest picks in the draft.
Other Options: If DeCastro falls, he's certainly an option, as is the guy I have the Cardinals taking with the next pick in Melvin Ingram, who could line up opposite the aging Chris Clemons and help shore up the pass rush from his DE position.
13. Arizona Cardinals: Melvin Ingram (OLB South Carolina)
The Cardinals top targets in this draft were taken consecutively with the last four picks. However, with the losses of Clark Haggans and Joey Porter on the outside, Arizona needs help and Ingram would help revitalize their pass rush.
Other Options: Obviously they'd have loved to get Michael Floyd, Riley Reiff, David DeCastro or Luke Kuechly but landing Ingram is a great pickup. Assuming the Cardinals don't trade, I'd bet my house they take one of those five guys.
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dontari Poe (DT Memphis)
The Dallas front office and coaches are apparently enamored with Poe's athleticism and potential. Rightfully so, I might add, as he blew the combine out of the water and showed he deserved to be a pick in the top half of the draft. However, he did little to back up his potential on tape, where he was rather pedestrian while playing at Memphis. It's not as if he had much competition there, some of their opponents included Middle Tennessee, Southern Mississippi and Austin Peay. For his opponents to be so bad and he to still have looked like an average player is concerning.
Other Options: If the Cowboys have the same worries that many other teams and draft analysts have, they may decide to instead target S Mark Barron, who would help solidify their secondary.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Mark Barron (S Alabama)
The Eagles have taken a safety in the second round each of the last two years, however neither appears to be the long term answer. Andy Reid hasn't anyone back there since Brian Dawkins left, so getting Barron would be a smart move. I still think Philadelphia is a prime target to trade up for a guy like Fletcher Cox, but there is talent to be had even if they stay at 15.
Other Options: If Kuechly doesn't fall to 15, which I doubt he will, the Eagles could take a linebacker who can play outside of Demeco Ryans and help in the run game. The front seven was atrocious last year in stopping opposing backs, so reaching for a guy like Dont'a Hightower or Courtney Upshaw is possible.
16. New York Jets: Dont'a Hightower (ILB Alabama)
From what I'm getting, Rex Ryan loves Hightower. And if Rex thinks, like I do, that Hightower is better served as an OLB this pick makes a lot of sense. They need guys how can play outside of Bart Scott and David Harris and are desperate need of a pure pass rusher. Hightower could be molded as he shows great on field awareness and instincts.
Other Options: They'll hope Kuechly falls first, but when that doesnt happen they can pick Hghtower or could always take Hightower's teammate Courtney Upshaw who actually played OLB in college. They'll consider Barron if he's there, and if Stephon Gilmore as a possibility to move to safety.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Stephon Gilmore (CB South Carolina)
Gilmore flown up draft boards over the last two months and is now considered to be the second best CB prospect behind Claiborne. Enter Cincinnati who lost Leon Hall to injury last year and it really hurt then later in the year. Nate Clements and Pacman Jones aren't the answer long term. Getting Gilmore would take care of the side opposite Hall and give the Bengals one the better tandems in the NFL, one they missed after they lost Jonathan Joseph last offseason.
Other Options: Some have Dre Kirkpatrick rated higher, we'll see, the Bengals might too. They lost Bobbie Williams so getting a G like Cordy Glenn could be possible with their next pick. If they value Kendall Wright enough, he could be the pick though it's more likely they'd take him with their second first rounder.
18. San Diego Chargers: Quinton Coples (DE UNC)
If not for character concerns, he'd probably already be gone. He has great potential when he's trying and is dominant pass rusher in a 4-3. The Chargers need help outside as Larry English was a total bust they haven't been getting sacks consistently since Shawne Merriman left. If San Diego feels he can be converted to an OLB then this would be a great pickup for them.
Other Options: If they don't think Coples can linebacker, they could go with Michael Brockers at DT, Cordy Glenn to help with the offensive line issues, or even just take Whitney Mercilus if they value him enough as he is already projected to play OLB in a 3-4.
19. Chicago Bears: Michael Brockers (DT LSU)
Brockers only started one year at LSU but it was an LSU defense that got to the National Championship as one of college football's best. He reminds me of Albert Haynesworth but hopefully without the mental problems. IF he shows he was more than a one year wonder than he could end up being one of the best players in this class. He has plenty of room for improvement and with a good coaching staff he could be a special player. And in Chicago, he'd be playing with the likes of Julius Peppers, Briand Urlacher and Lance Briggs.
Other Options: They have needs at CB, OL and TE. Kirkpatrick's value doesn't match up as far as I'm concerned but it could be different to them. Cordy Glenn and Jonathan MArtin will likely warrant consideration though I don't consider Martin a 1st round prospect at all. Coby Fleener has become overrated, the same way the aforementioned Martin has. Must be a Stanford thing...
20. Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus (DE/OLB Illinois)
I fully expect the Titans to go defense with this pick and Mercilus in my mind is the best one available. He fills a need and has big upside as DE in a 4-3. Tennessee needs an outside rush threat so getting Mercilus would be be a great find.
Other Options: Michael Brockers if he's available, Dre Kirkpatrick, though I still consider it a reach, Courtney Upshaw or even Mark Barron if he should slip.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Kendall Wright (WR Baylor)
Wright is a speedster with great potential after playing RG3 at Baylor. The Bengals need a WR opposite Green, especially with the losses of Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson. Jordan Shipley is a slot guy coming off an injury so Cincinnati will need to address WR somewhere in this draft and Wright seems about as good an option as any. He'd be a great change of pace, as his style differs from Green who is more a dominant possesion reciever rather than a deep threat like Wright. Getting Andy Dalton more weapons will help his progression and keep the Bengals competitive in the AFC North.
Other Options: CB or OL. Kirkpatrick and Glenn remain options but Wright has a higher ceiling than those two and serves a bigger need. Expect them to look at a RB in the second or third round to complement Green-Ellis.
22. Cleveland Browns: Stephen Hill (WR Georgia Tech)
My guess is the Browns would be pretty pissed right about now, given the fact that they just lost their target in Wright to a hated divional foe. Regardless, they'll stay at WR and take Stephen Hill who is an athletic freak with a sub 4.3 40 and stands at 6'4". Hill has tremendous upside, and he'll be the first real receiving threat McCoy has ever had.
Other Options: My guess is that Cleveland takes Brandon at 37 in the second round rather than reach at 22. They could also target Cordy Glenn, Jonathan Martin or Mike Adams if they want a tackle.
23. Detroit Lions: Dre Kirkpatrick (CB Alabama)
The Lions missed out on Cortland Finnegan so I think this finally the year they address the secondary and take a CB first round. Their offense is one of the best in the game, it's their defense, more specifically the back end of it, that are costing them games. Playoff teams dont need to score 50 points just to win, if you try to outscore your opponent to get the W, your doing something wrong. Getting Kirkpatrick would help, but I think it would be smart to go DB second round as well, as the Alabama product is no Darrelle Revis-he's not going to take guys out of the game. He's a a serviceable starter but he's not enough to fix the problems on Detroit's defense.
Other Options: They'd love to get Gilmore or Barron but they'll both likely be gone, so barring a trade Kirkpatrick is the smartest move they can make. Offensive line is still a need so Glenn, Martin and Adams will be considered but ultimately I expect them to go DB first round.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cordy Glenn (T/G Georgia)
Read this article, it will explain this pick if your interested. What you need to know, is that I don't like this pick, but it's my best guess at this point.
http://theburghreport.blogspot.com/2012/04/24th-pick-in-case-you-hadnt-made.html
Other Options: They're in the article
25. Denver Broncos: Kendall Reyes (DT Connecticut)
Everyone seems to think the Broncos will DT, so I'll assume they know what they're talking about. Kendall Reyes is the best available DT and would help continue to improve a defense that carried Denver to the playoffs last year. (Who do you think was keeping those games close enough for Tebow to even attempt to pull off those comebacks, God?.....ok maybe. But the Broncos can't draft God, so they'll settle for Reyes here)
Other Options: Michael Brockers if he falls, Jonathan Martin if they can get past his weakness as a finesse blocker or Coby Fleener if Peyton wants him.
26. Houston Texans: Jonathan Martin (OT Stanford)
The Texans lost OT Eric Winston to free agency so Martin could make sense here from a need standpoint. I think they'd rather get a WR here, but with Wright and Hill of the board, it would be a reach for Reuben Randle or Alshon Jeffery so OT makes more sense. I think Martin has glaring weaknesses and has been overvalued simply because he protected Andrew Luck's blind side at Stanford. In reality he is a finesse blocker who will go first round when he is probably more deserving of a mid to late second round grade.
Other Options: Trade up for a WR or hope one falls. Mike Adams could be a possibility as well at OT or they could grab an OLB as the replacement for Mario Williams who left town for Buffalo. Courtney Upshaw and Shea McClelin could both be options for Houston's 3-4 scheme.
27. New England Patriots: Courtney Upshaw (OLB Alabama)
The Patriots defense was shit last year, agreed? Good. So it's safe to assume that if they don't trade these picks away or up or down or wherever the hell Bill Belichick wants to move to, they will go defense. Glad we're in agreement. I think Courtney Upshaw is the best player available and can play DE in a 4-3 or OLB in 3-4, depending on The Hoodie's mood. They need help at seven or eight positions on defense so look for DB as well with one of their higher picks.
Other Options: Obviously DB is a never ending need in New England so they could target guys like Casey Hayward, Harrison Smith (though it would be a complete reach), or consider the possibility of trading into the low teens to grab Mark Barron. They certainly have the picks to spare if they really wanted a guy in particular.
28. Green Bay Packers: Shea McClelin (OLB Boise State)
He reminds me of Clay Matthews so it seems fitting for the Packers to take him. They need a guy to a play at the other OLB spot and McClelin has a great motor and work ethic. Green Bay would like to bring another pass rusher as their only consistent source of pressure seems to come from Matthews and corner blitzes out of Dom Capers' scheme.
Other Options: If Courtney Upshaw is available, he could be the pick as well. RB is not out of the question so keep an eye on Doug Martin. They brought in Jeff Saturday but he's not a long term fix at center so Peter Konz may warrant consideration as well.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Peter Konz (C Wisconsin)
My guess is center is not what Baltimore is hoping to come away with in the first round so they could be a team that tries to trade up for a guy like Hightower or out of the first round all together to stockpile picks. Konz is a good player and the best center in this class but his value is probably more mid second round. He could also play guard and take over for Ben Grubbs if the Ravens liked the idea of him transitioning over.
Other Options: Certainly they'd like to find Ray Lewis' replacement in this draft, so Hightower could be a target of theirs. They also have needs at S, OLB and G. Kevin Zeitler could also be the pick here if they like him more than Konz, and Harrison Smith is just not worth a first round pick in my opinion. Courtney Upshaw, Shea McClelin of Nick Perry could be possibilities as well after the loss of Jarret Johnson to San Diego.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Kevin Zeitler (G Wisconsin)
The amazing thing about the 49ers is that they have no glaring needs. Sure they are areas they could improve like WR, but they've already got Crabtree and just brought in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. If Stephen Hill were here, I could see them taking him, and they might still consider trading up to grab him or Kendall Wright. With the way Jim Harbaugh uses TEs I could see him liking his former player Coby Fleener and grabbing him too. However nabbing Zeitler is a safe pick and he seems like a guy whose going to be a good player for a long time. Their offensive line was by no means perfect last season, but they've still got a ton of guys to rotate in. I oculd see Zeitler winning a starting job in training camp, without the risk of taking a guy with bust potential like Fleener or Hill.
Other Options: Trade up for Stephen Hill or Coby Fleener if they like them enough, or just hope that they fall and if not just take the best player available.
31. New England Patriots: Casey Hayward (CB Vanderbilt)
Hayward is considered by some to be better than Kirkpatrick and could also be moved to safety if that's where the Patriots see him fitting best. They reached a little last year for Ras-I Dowling at the top of round 2 who was hurt in 2011, so they don't know if he's a starter yet. Getting Hayward in a similar spot makes sense given their seemingly constant injured secondary. It will be interesting if Julian Edelman remains a nickel corner or if they let him back on offense.
Other Options: Lavonte David could be an option if they don't take Upshaw with the 27th pick. With the loss of Green-Ellis they may also consider Doug Martin at the back end of round one. And as always the Patriots are a candidate to trade so I doubt that they come out of the first round on Thursday with these same picks.
32. New York Giants: Coby Fleener (TE Stanford)
If Coby Fleener is as good as advertised (though I have my doubts) then this could make the Super Bowl Champions the best passing offense in the game, in terms of receiving talent. They have a need at TE and he's the best in this class. Still possible they could address needs at LB, RB or G but Fleener is luxury pick and when your the champions you can take a luxury pick, while addressing positions of need later in the draft.
Other Options: Bradshaw showed weakness last year and they lost Brandon Jacobs to San Francisco so Doug Martin or David Wilson could be options here at the end of the first. Kevin Zeitler could be an option too as they could use a guard to pair with Chris Snee. An OLB like Lavonte David could be a possibility as well to shore up the middle of their defense behind their incredible pass rush.
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