Let me attempt to summarize this little conundrum of mine. First we have the guy that 80% of mocks have listed as a lock for the Steelers to take, in Dont'a Hightower. Most of that propaganda is the result of ESPN writers who aren't paid to be scouts, but feel obligated to throw their two sense anyway. While Hightower is a good player, and an even better leader, to me he is better suited for the Mike backer in a 3-4, or a DE in a 4-3. I don't trust his coverage skills and that makes him a two down linebacker. Dick Lebeau doesn't have 2 down linebackers. Especially not ones who are 22 years old. The moral being, I don't like this notion, nor do I like his Alabama teammate Courtney Upshaw, who raises similar concerns.
Next, lets talk offensive line. Matt Kalil, Riley Reiff and David DeCastro will be well gone by the 24th pick and I'd be shocked if the Steelers attempted to trade up. That leaves the following options as possibilities: Cordy Glenn, Jonathan Martin, Kevin Zeitler, Bobbie Massie, Amini Silatolu, Peter Konz, Mike Adams or Kelechi Osemele. Let me say this, of those guys, the only one worthy of a first round grade is Glenn (which, if the Steelers stay where they are, would be my best guess as to who they might take) but his weight worries me and I have concerns over his ability to pick up the blitz and handle top tier pass rushers. The rest of those guys are 2nd and 3rd rounders at best. Mike Adams is a lazy bum, with a poor work ethic, who has great potential but his off field issues should knock him off the Steelers' draft board. Jonathan Martin is a finesse blocker who has been overvalued as a result of great talent around him at Stanford. Neither of those tackles should be taken earlier than the mid to late second round, but some team will grab them early anyway. The only other even remote possibility, is the Steelers reaching for Kevin Zeitler. I like the guy-he reminds me of Steve Hutchinson and Logan Mankins-but I think the only way that pick happens is if the Steelers trade down to a pick in the 30s.
One less likely thought is going OLB. The Steelers brought Nick Perry in for a visit, and are rumored to have worked out Illinios OLB Whitney Mercilus. This seems to be similar to what the Steelers did last year when they took Cameron Heyward at 31. Prior to the draft, they told Heyward that if he was available when they were picking, they'd take him. They did, and it wouldn't be too shocking if they did something similar with one of these two. I still don't love this idea, but I could see it happening it Mercilus makes it to 24.
One less likely thought is going OLB. The Steelers brought Nick Perry in for a visit, and are rumored to have worked out Illinios OLB Whitney Mercilus. This seems to be similar to what the Steelers did last year when they took Cameron Heyward at 31. Prior to the draft, they told Heyward that if he was available when they were picking, they'd take him. They did, and it wouldn't be too shocking if they did something similar with one of these two. I still don't love this idea, but I could see it happening it Mercilus makes it to 24.
Some other options include taking a safety in Mark Barron who'll likely be gone. They could consider the idea of how TE Coby Fleener could diversify the offense and pick him at 24. They could take weird picks that would piss me off, like WR Stephen Hill or RBs Lamar Miller or Doug Martin. Hell, they might even look at a guy like Dre Kirkpatrick (But the Steelers haven't drafted a corner first round in 15 years, I doubt that changes on Thursday).
Anyway, my point is, there is no lock here. There is no guy I love. My favorite of the group would be a total reach, which is why unless a guy like DeCastro falls far enough for the Steelers to trade up, I'd rather they be trading back to add some middle rounders. The Steelers have to address their depth concerns and it would serve them better to have six total picks in the 2nd-4th round range than the four they have now. Right now, I think Mercilus would be their favorite option of the bunch, but I have Tennessee taking him at 20, so what we're left with is a very blurry group of options.
So, I suppose the next question to be addressed is assuming the Steelers do want to trade down, who could be their partner? Well, there in lies the problem. You see, most years there would be a team that might be looking to trade into the late first round to grab a QB. But this year, I don't know who that team would be. The teams most in need of a QB will likely have already taken care of that in the top 10. The Browns might want a QB, but they have another pick at 22, so if they really wanted one, they wouldn't need to trade back into that late 1st round range as they're already there. So this partner would need to be someone who is looking for a specific guy and is worried that by their next pick, that guy may be gone.
Enter the 49ers, Ravens, Eagles, Patriots and Rams as potential buyers. The 49ers or Rams could be targeting Fleener before someone else takes him, and the Steelers could then drop 6 or 8 spots, add a 3rd round pick, maybe even a 4th and still get Kevin Zeitler. The Ravens might be high enough on Dont'a Hightower that they want to move up to draft the heir apparent to Ray Lewis. It's also possible they could trade with the Lions at 23, but for the purpose of discussion lets say we ignore the whole rivalry thing and swap picks. Again the Steelers get their man in Zeitler for a better value and add a pick or two. The Patriots are more of a wild card because they pick at 27 and I don't know who they might target. I include them based on the fact that they simply have a ton of picks and if there were a guy they wanted that they thought might not make it past picks 25 or 26 then its possible, and again, we add picks. The Eagles are a team that has two picks in the second round (maybe three depending on what they get in a possible trade of Asante Samuel) which makes them similar to the Patriots, in that they have plethora of picks that they may be willing to dole out if they want to target a guy in specific. Maybe Hightower, Glenn, Barron, Fleener, Martin etc.
Now for fun, lets say the Steelers listen to me. Lets say they land an extra 2nd, 3rd and 4th round pick for their 1st rounder. Who do they take? Well you'll be pleasantly surprised to know that I've got quite a few thoughts on that front:
2nd round: Mychal Kendricks (ILB California) and Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH).
3rd round: Josh Chapman (NT Alabama) and Robert Turbin (RB Utah St.)
4th round: Marvin McNutt (WR Iowa) and Zebrie Sanders (OT Florida St.)
Here's what you need to know about each:
Mychal Kendricks ran a 4.44 40 with 24 reps on the bench. He compares favorably to Timmons, though a little smaller, weighing only 240 lbs. He can cover so there aren't any questions about him as a three down linebacker. With some time to learn the system behind Foote and Sylvester, he could step in as a starter by the end of the season and give us one of, if not the most athletic inside pairing in the NFL. He's also a hard hitter who could play the blitz the same way LeBeau has utilized Timmons the last few years. I don't know if he could be expected to play the Buck spot where Farrior was for the last decade so Timmons might move over until Kendricks settles in.
Brandon Brooks could be the steal of this draft, and has been compared to Larry Allen and Leonard Davis given his massive size (about 350 lbs.). He has great power and will step in day one for Doug Legursky. The Steelers were all over him at his Pro Day after he was snubbed from the combine. They actually ran his drills at Miami OH, where they were well represented by a number of coaches and team personnel. If I had to bet on the Steelers taking one guy in particular at any point in this draft, my money would be on Brooks in the 2nd round. They have been enamored with his potential for a while, and rightfully so.
Josh Chapman is my favorite prospect in this class. He played the exact same role that Casey Hampton has for us for the last decade. And he played it on the best college defense I've ever seen. He was a leader on defense who anchored their line beautifully from the nose guard position. He's tough as shit and a true team player. To give you an example, he tore his ACL in October, the doctors said he'd be out for the season, and needed surgery. Instead he bypassed the surgery, finished the year and led his team to a victory in the national championship where the defense shut out LSU en route to a 21-0 win. If not for the injury he'd be a 1st or 2nd round prospect. Oh, and if he wasn't amazing already, he did 48 reps on the bench (4 more than fellow NT and possible Steelers prospect, Dontari Poe) and ran a 5.02 in the 40 which shows good athleticism. So those of you who are enamored with Poe's combine workout need only look up this man to realize there are other options.
Robert Turbin is another guy I love that would be a steal in the 3rd round. As far as I'm concerned he has the potential to be the 2nd best RB in this class behind Richardson. He's strong, a good pass blocker, has a great work ethic, powerful in a way Steelers fans haven't seen since the departure of Jerome Bettis and has been completely undervalued because he played at Utah State.
Marvin McNutt is a big target with good leaping ability and could make for a great red zone target for Ben. He reminds of Limas Sweed, though I do hope he handles the mental aspects better. Big, soft hands, and could learn the system for a year because there is a good chance the Steelers won't be able to retain Wallace, Brown and Sanders next year. We'll likely lose at least one, and this way we've got a replacement with great upside.
Zebrie Sanders is undervalued and makes for a good value pick in the 4th. He could provide depth behind Gilbert, Colon and Scott until he learns the system. He strikes me as a guy who has the potential to be a quality starter two years down the line (Though given the Steelers constant injury woes, I'm sure he'd see plenty of time his rookie year).
A couple other guys I could see the Steelers taking in this range are DT Mike Martin out of Michigan, RB Isaiah Pead out of Cincinnati and Derek Wolfe who reminds me of Aaron Smith as a 5 technique DE, also out of Cincinnati. James-Michael Johnson, an ILB from Nevada, could be the target if the Steelers don't grab a guy like Kendricks earlier on.
Other late round options I'm keeping an eye on include:
T.Y. Hilton (WR Florida International)
Devon Wylie (WR Fresno State)
Ketih Tandy (CB West Virginia)
Tommy Streeter (WR Miami)
Akiem Hicks (DE Regina)
Michael Egnew (TE Missouri)
Ryan Van Bergen (DE Michigan)
Blair Walsh (K Georgia)
Bryan Anger (P Califronia)
Cam Johnson (DE/OLB Virginia)
Jerrell Harris (OLB Alabama)
Case Keenum (QB Houston)
Kellen Moore (QB Boise State)
Lucas Nix (G Pittsburgh)
Russell Wilson (QB Wisconsin)
Marcus Forston (DT Miami)
Hebron Fangupo (DT Brigham Young)
Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT Baylor)
Nick Toon (WR Wisconsin)
Junior Hemingway (WR Michigan)
Joe Adams (WR Arkansas)
Greg Childs (WR Arkansas)
....Do you understand why 140 characters frustrates me?
No comments:
Post a Comment