Wednesday, April 25, 2012

1st Round Possibilities

The only people out there who are confident in who they have going to the Steelers in a mock, are probably those who have no idea what they're talking about.  I'm referring to the geniuses at ESPN who have had Dont'a Hightower pegged as a lock to go at 24 for the last month or so.  I'm willing to bet my house that the Steelers don't take him. You can hold me to that.  Those of us who have actually spent considerable time on the matter, realize this pick is a total mystery.  Sure we have hunches, and there are guys we might like more than others as possibilities, but in reality, not even those have done their homework would be confident if they had to take a test on who the Steelers will take.  That is why I'm here to consider all the reasonable possibilities of players the Steelers might take 1st round, if they had their say and the player were available.  Then, I'm going to list who I would want to see them take in the 2nd and 3rd rounds based on the 1st rounder. With me? Doesn't matter, you'll get the idea.

Now I've split this list of 14 possible players into 3 groups. Those who will probably already be taken, those who I hope we don't take and those who I think are actually fairly reasonable options.

I'll then add a player from a position which makes sense for the next 2 rounds.  

The 2nd round options include:
Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)/Amini Silatolu (G Midwestern State)
Kelechi Osemele (T Iowa State)/Bobbie Massie (T Mississippi)/Mitchell Schwartz (T California)
Mychal Kendricks (ILB California)
Derek Wolfe (DL Cincinnati)
Lavonte David (OLB Nebraska) Though he probably won't fall this far.

The 3rd round options include:
Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)/Mike Martin (DT Michigan)
Robert Turbin (RB Utah State)/Isaiah Pead (RB Cincinnati)
Marvin McNutt (WR Iowa)/T.Y. Hilton (WR Florida International)
Zebrie Sanders (T FSU)/Brandon Washington (G/T Miami)
Bobby Wagner (ILB Utah State)/James-Michael Johnson (ILB Nevada)

Keep in mind, when I put a guy down for the 2nd or 3rd, I'm implying I think it will be him, or another player from that position.  So if I put Josh Chapman down as a 3rd round option for someone, I mean that I think the Steelers will target NT with that pick. Implying that it could be Chapman or Mike Martin, who he is listed with.

You'll notice that I think the Steelers will be taking a NT and an OL somewhere in two of our top three picks.  My favorites are Brooks and Chapman (which you'll notice below) but I could see other guys at their position being taken instead, depending on the Steelers draft board.  The third player in the top 3 will be a the wild card, depending on what player is taken in the 1st.

So let's start with the ones I'm hoping fall:

Dontari Poe (DT Memphis)
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Robert Turbin (RB Utah State)

Michael Brockers (DT LSU)
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Robert Turbin (RB Utah State)

Mark Barron
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

David DeCastro
   2nd) Mychal Kendricks (ILB California)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

Of these, I think Poe is the most reasonable option given his recent slip down the boards as result of poor film.  I'd have a tough time passing on a guy with his upside if he's available but I doubt he will be.

These are the guys who I hope are not the pick:

Mike Adams
   2nd) Mychal Kendricks (ILB California)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

Nick Perry
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

Jonathan Martin
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

Courtney Upshaw
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

Andre Branch
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

The first three are vastly overrated in my opinion, Upshaw simply does not fit the mold and Branch doesn't match the value of the 24th pick.

These guys are the most reasonable options, and the ones most often found in mocks:

Dont'a Hightower
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

Kevin Zeitler
   2nd) Derek Wolfe (DL Cincinnati) or Mychal Kendricks (ILB California)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

Cordy Glenn
   2nd) Derek Wolfe (DL Cincinnati)  or Mychal Kendricks (ILB California)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

Coby Fleener
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

Whitney Mercilus
   2nd) Brandon Brooks (G Miami OH)
   3rd) Josh Chapman (NT Alabama)

I could see the Steelers taking anyone of them if they're available.  Fleener is the least likely, I still think Zeitler would be a reach at 24, and I'm not as enamored with Glenn as I wish I were.  Hightower may go 16th to the Jets but I doubt that even if he is available that the Steelers would take him.  He doesn't fit the scheme and would take a lot of work to be effective at the MACK or BUCK backer positions.  This leaves Mercilus which right now is the guy I think the Steelers want most.  He's extremely athletic but was just a one year producer in college.  He has great upside and compares to Dwight Freeney, Richard Dent and Jason Pierre-Paul, all of whom are phenomenal company to be in. If he's available for the Steelers, he'd be my guess.  But that's still all it is.  So what's yours?

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