My previous prediction is in parenthesis.
AFC EAST
New England Patriots: 11-5 (14-2)
Miami Dolphins: 7-9 (1-15)
Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (9-7)
New York Jets: 5-11 (4-12)
Who'd have thought the Patriots run offense would rank higher (4th) than their pass offense (5th) through eight games?
This is clearly their division and I would be absolutely shocked if any of these other teams remained in the wild card race for much longer. The Dolphins have been a pleasant surprise but with two games against New England and a contest in San Francisco looming, I have a tough time seeing them running the table in their remaining five to maintain a winning record. If this team were to win seven or eight games, I would call this season a success considering I had them pegged as the worst team in football coming in. The team that may have overtaken them for that spot is the Jets, who, on top of being untalented and dysfunctional to begin with, have lost their top playmakers on both sides of the ball for the season.
From a talent perspective, Buffalo has the best shot of these three to still make a push for the playoffs but with how pitiful their defense is, and how sporadic Ryan Fitzpatrick's decision making is, I just don't see it happening.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5 (11-5)
Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 (9-7)
Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10 (5-11)
Cleveland Browns: 4-12 (3-13)
It took a multitude of injuries but my prediction for the AFC North actually seems fairly attainable. I fully expect Pittsburgh to take the division, considering Baltimore's defense has fallen from grace in wake of their laundry list of ailments on that side of the ball. The only change here is that I do expect them to make the playoffs as a wild card. It looks like nine wins in the AFC will be good enough for the playoffs and Baltimore's 6-2 start will make up for less than stellar play in the second half of the season.
Cincinnati has underwhelmed, lost four straight and Andy Dalton is having the sophomore slump we all feared/assumed he would. The Browns, in spite of their porous record, have impressed me. The defense keeps them competitive; the key is winning these close games. For those of you who haven't been paying attention (who could you blame you?) the Browns have been better than their record would suggest. They've lost four games by a touchdown or less, and in losses against the Giants and Ravens, actually held leads that they blew. So I stand by my belief that they are better than the Bengals though the standings probably won't reflect that, come January.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans: 13-3 (12-4)
Indianapolis Colts: 8-8 (9-7)
Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (8-8)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-14 (5-11)
Houston looks like the class of the AFC right now and might have both the offensive and defensive players of the year in Arian Foster and J.J. Watt. As much as I like the Colts, and as smart as I feel about having them as a wild card team, it will be an uphill battle. They have yet to play Houston and have trips to New England and Detroit coming in the next few weeks. It will take some Luck (haha) but I still think they'll make the playoffs.
Tennessee has disappointed me in virtually all phases and there will be some changes this offseason. That performance against Chicago was abysmal.
Who'd have thought five wins would be generous? The Jaguars are dead last in points scored, total yards, passing yards and are 28th in the run. That's not a recipe for success. its a recipe for the top pick in the draft. Shad Khan is not pleased.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos: 12-4 (8-8)
San Diego Chargers: 8-8 (9-7)
Oakland Raiders: 6-10 (5-11)
Kansas City Chiefs: 3-13 (10-6)
I definitely got this division the most wrong.
Peyton Manning is the favorite for comeback player of the year and MVP. I'm guessing that would be a first. Looking at the rest of their schedule, there really isn't a game I expect them to lose. I'll bet they slip up once but they have a smooth path the rest of the way to the post season.
You have to think Norv Turner is done if San Diego misses the playoffs again, which they probably will. Oakland is still Oakland. They'll miss the playoffs and then trade all their draft picks away to get some washed up former first round pick.
The Chiefs might be the biggest disappointment of the 2012 season. I had high hopes; all Matt Cassel had to do was take care of the football and let the running game and defense do the rest. But no, he's turned the ball over 18 times in just over six games this year. I mean, how do you go eight games without ever leading? That's unbelievable. (My luck, they'll break that streak against the Steelers this week)
NFC EAST
New York Giants: 10-6 (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (10-6)
Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9 (7-9)
Washington Redskins: 5-11 (5-11)
The Giants are not the elite team the media touts them to be. They're good but in a more consistent division, they wouldn't make the playoffs. If you look at their seven remaining games, there isn't a game left where I can say definitively, "yes, the Giants will win." Am I saying they're going to lose them all, of course not, but their remaining trek to the playoffs is as difficult as any in the NFL.
The Cowboys seem determined to make me look like an idiot for picking them to win the division. They're not out of it, but they'd probably need to win six out of eight for the second wild card.
Philadelphia is such a mess I don't even to know where to begin. So let's not. Point is, Andy Reid & Michael Vick are on the hot seat and this could be the end of their tenure with the Eagles. Screw math, there is no way they're going to the playoffs.
RG3 has been even better than expected but this year is about adjusting to the pro game, not winning the Super Bowl.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears: 13-3 (11-5)
Green Bay Packers: 12-4 (14-2)
Detroit Lions: 7-9 (8-8)
Minnesota Vikings: 7-9 (6-10)
I feel fairly confident about every projected division winner I have, with the exception of the NFC North. This will come down to the wire for Green Bay and Chicago; the two teams I believe to be the best in the NFC. The Bears defense is having a season for the ages while Aaron Rodgers has throw 22 touchdowns in his last six games. This week, the Packers are on a much needed bye week to heal their ailing receiving corpse while the Bears have a date with the red hot Texans. In all likelihood, we won't know how the division will shape out until the two play in week 15, but you can count on both making the playoffs.
The Lions have dug themselves into a hole and Minnesota peaked early. Both have rather difficult schedules remaining and while the playoffs aren't out of the question, neither have shown much to make me believe that they could make a push, given how tight the NFC race is going to be.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: 13-3 (13-3)
New Orleans Saints: 9-7 (12-4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8 (7-9)
Carolina Panthers: 4-12 (7-9)
Atlanta is undefeated at the half way point and appear poised to make a run. I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Saints swept the upcoming series, but the division is clearly in the bag for the Falcons. I expect them to drop as many as four of their remaining games and how far they'll go in January remains to be seen, but so far they have done everything right.
The Saints, well, they've done most things wrong. The defense, in terms of yardage is on pace to break the NFL record as the worst in history. In spite of that, I still think they have shot. They've won three out of four and as long as Drew Brees is under center, they can compete with anybody. It will be difficult, but the playoffs remain a very real possibility for a team that started 0-4.
The Buccaneers have been a very good team and have had the most productive rookie class of anyone thus far in 2012. They have to be considered contenders for the final wild card at this point but its up to Josh Freeman to get them there.
The Panthers, well they've been pretty bad. Cam Newton's immaturity has been under the microscope in recent weeks and clearly doesn't handle losing well. I don't think many expected them to have just two wins through eight weeks, but there were going to be growing pains. It wasn't like Newton was going to win the Super Bowl in his second year. Not to mention, injuries have hit this team about as hard as anyone. I don't think Ron Rivera should lose his job, but if they can't pick up some decisive wins in the second half, we could see an overhaul in the offseason.
Atlanta is undefeated at the half way point and appear poised to make a run. I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Saints swept the upcoming series, but the division is clearly in the bag for the Falcons. I expect them to drop as many as four of their remaining games and how far they'll go in January remains to be seen, but so far they have done everything right.
The Saints, well, they've done most things wrong. The defense, in terms of yardage is on pace to break the NFL record as the worst in history. In spite of that, I still think they have shot. They've won three out of four and as long as Drew Brees is under center, they can compete with anybody. It will be difficult, but the playoffs remain a very real possibility for a team that started 0-4.
The Buccaneers have been a very good team and have had the most productive rookie class of anyone thus far in 2012. They have to be considered contenders for the final wild card at this point but its up to Josh Freeman to get them there.
The Panthers, well they've been pretty bad. Cam Newton's immaturity has been under the microscope in recent weeks and clearly doesn't handle losing well. I don't think many expected them to have just two wins through eight weeks, but there were going to be growing pains. It wasn't like Newton was going to win the Super Bowl in his second year. Not to mention, injuries have hit this team about as hard as anyone. I don't think Ron Rivera should lose his job, but if they can't pick up some decisive wins in the second half, we could see an overhaul in the offseason.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers: 11-5 (8-8)
Seattle Seahawks: 9-7 (9-7)
Arizona Cardinals: 6-10 (2-14)
St. Louis Rams: 5-11 (6-10)
So I was wrong about the 49ers. They were not overrated last year and if anything, their defense is probably even better. Alex Smith has been very impressive, as he has been a playmaking game manager, if you can imagine such a thing. The Seahawks remain a very real threat for a wild card and are the kind of team that can beat anyone at home. That secondary never ceases to amaze me.
The Cardinals and Rams started out well but have slumped in recent weeks. Both defenses have played very well, and their coordinators, especially Ray Horton in Arizona, deserve a ton of credit. Clearly neither John Skelton nor Kevin Kolb is the long term answer, and it appears likely that they will address the position in the draft. The Rams, specifically Sam Bradford, desperately need a playmaker at receiver and it remains to be seen if Daryl Richardson can be expected to take over for Steven Jackson, as this will likely be his last year.
Awards
MVP: Peyton Manning (Tom Brady)
Offensive Player of the Year: Brandon Marshall (Brandon Marshall)
Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt (Lamarr Woodley)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck (Russell Wilson)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Luke Kuechly (Chandler Jones)
Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning (Peyton Manning)
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians and Chuck Pagano (Pete Carroll)
How was I supposed to know Wade Phillips wasn't blowing smoke out of his ass when he touted J.J. Watt as a future hall of famer? Charles Tillman is having one hell of a year as well so I tend to think it comes down to these two.
See my stat projections below to understand why Marshall remains my favorite for offensive player of the year.
Otherwise a few of these could go a couple different ways and I wouldn't really argue it.
You have to think Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady will all be considered for MVP as well, and maybe even Watt depending on how he finishes.
Offensive rookie will come down to what the voters value more: Andrew Luck's wins or Robert Griffin's fantasy points. If the Colts miss the playoffs you can bet that the Redskins young star will take it. Defensively, Jones, Lavonte David, Vontaze Burflict and Morris Claiborne will all be in the conversation as well.
Though there is an argument to be made for Adrian Peterson as the comeback player of the year, he never actually missed much time in terms of games and his career was never in jeopardy. Peyton on the other hand, not only returned to play when some thought he would retire, but is having one of his best seasons as a pro and is on his way to an unprecedented, fifth MVP award.
Leaders
Passing Yardage: Drew Brees-4900 (Tom Brady-5600)
Passing Touchdowns: Aaron Rodgers-47 (Aaron Rodgers-54)
Rushing Yards: Adrian Peterson-1500 (Chris Johnson-1700)
Rushing Touchdowns: Arian Foster-19 (Darren McFadden-17)
Receptions: Brandon Marshall-134 (Brandon Marshall-134)
Receiving Yards: Brandon Marshall-1750 (Brandon Marshall-1750)
Receiving Touchdowns: Brandon Marshall-17 (Jimmy Graham-20)
Tackles: Luke Kuechly-150 (Luke Kuechly-200)
Sacks: Von Miller-17.5 (DeMarcus Ware-25)
Interceptions: Tim Jennings-9 (Joe Haden-9)
Brady could still easily lead in yardage but he's certainly not breaking any records. Interestingly enough, Brees is the only quarterback currently on pace for 5000 yards after having three, almost four, in 2011.
I don't think I need to discuss what disappointments Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden have been. Arian Foster is on a tear, having scored a touchdown in twelve straight games dating back to last season and Adrian Peterson seems to have forgotten he tore his ACL.
I'm sticking with Brandon Marshall as the top receiver but now I've got him going for the triple crown. With Graham banged up, I think he's lost too much ground to lead in touchdowns so I'm going with the Bears superstar across the board.
Defensively, Ware has not been the beast I expected so I'm going with the man currently tied for second in Von Miller. In tackles I'm sticking with Kuechly and in interceptions, I'm going with Tim Jennings who currently holds the lead for that ridiculous Bears defense.
Wild Card Round
6) Indianapolis Colts: 17 6) Seattle Seahawks: 38
3) New England Patriots: 31 3) San Francisco 49ers: 24
5) Baltimore Ravens: 13 5) Green Bay Packers: 27
4) Pittsburgh Steelers: 27 4) New York Giants: 23
Divisional Round
4) Pittsburgh Steelers: 35 6) New Orleans Saints: 34
1) Houston Texans: 24 1) Atlanta Falcons: 31
3) New England Patriots: 30 5) Green Bay Packers: 27
2) Denver Broncos: 33 2) Chicago Bears: 24
Conference Championships
4) Pittsburgh Steelers: 30 6) New Orleans Saints: 26
2) Denver Broncos: 23 1) Green Bay Packers: 23
Super Bowl XLVII
New Orleans Saints: 24
Pittsburgh Steelers: 34
I'm sticking with my original Super Bowl pick. Yes, I realize I'm slightly irrational when it comes to the Steelers and Saints (I'm determined to be right) but I think they both have a run in them.
Here's what's crazy, half of the teams in the NFC all have a reasonable shot at landing that coveted sixth seed.
Outside of their five virtual playoff locks (Bears, Falcons, 49ers, Giants and Packers) the only teams in the conference who even have winning records are the Seahawks and Vikings at 5-4. After that, the Lions and Buccaneers are even at 4-4, the Cardinals are 4-5 and the Cowboys, Eagles and Saints each have three wins.
People look at New Orleans and write them off for their start but guess what, they are only a game and half back of being a playoff team! You don't think Drew Brees could get this team on a 6-2 run? I do and the more I look at it, the more I like their chances.
I'm starting to think that nine wins will be enough to take that final spot. I like the Seahawks... at home, where they have four games remaining. If they win those, that would put them at nine wins. I've explained above that I don't trust Minnesota to maintain their early success and for them to make the playoffs they would need to go on a 4-3 run. Impossible? No. Unlikely? Very.
Detroit and Tampa are in it, but I have a tough time believing that Josh Freeman or Matthew Stafford can be trusted to lead their teams to winning records through that kind of adversity. Arizona has lost five straight and is in a free fall.
I'm getting tired of defending Dallas only to see them blow a lead and hear ESPN debate all week what has gone wrong with America's team. Philadelphia is a mess across the board.
So for now, I'm going to stick with my gut. Meaning until the Saints are mathematically eliminated.
Don't worry, the Steelers are winning the Super Bowl regardless.
Coaches Who Will Get Fired
Norv Turner
Pat Shurmur
Ken Whisenhunt
Leslie Frazier
Andy Reid
Marvin Lewis
Mike Munchak
Jason Garrett
Only changes were the additions of Munchak and Garrett.
Don't be surprised if Jaguars owner, Shad Khan, makes an irrational move and pulls the plug on Mike Mularkey after only one season. Romeo Crennel is in danger too but I think he'll get another year to prove himself. I'm hesitant to keep Whisenhunt on there but you have to think that the Cardinals can only have so many seasons of mediocrity before a change is made. Coach Frazier could go either way as well.
-Eric Brill
Mike Munchak
Jason Garrett
Only changes were the additions of Munchak and Garrett.
Don't be surprised if Jaguars owner, Shad Khan, makes an irrational move and pulls the plug on Mike Mularkey after only one season. Romeo Crennel is in danger too but I think he'll get another year to prove himself. I'm hesitant to keep Whisenhunt on there but you have to think that the Cardinals can only have so many seasons of mediocrity before a change is made. Coach Frazier could go either way as well.
-Eric Brill
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