Thus far, I'd say I've been most right (or at least feel the smartest) about the Colts and most wrong (dumbest) about the Chiefs as I had both making the playoffs.
As always, I will remind everyone that the way I order teams is by applying a scenario where, if any two teams were to play each other tomorrow, who would I predict to win? Meaning I'd predict the best team to beat the other 31 regardless and the last team to lose regardless of matchup. Of course I take into account their performance thus far, but just because you lose a game, does not mean you're a bad team or automatically worse than a team with a better record. This is an interpretation of what teams have done recently, and how much I believe in them. At this moment, who is the best team? Not the most successful to this point in the 2012 season. This is not a perfect science, but its a general guideline for you to at least understand my basis of thinking.
I've hammered the point enough, you either get it or you don't. So let's get at it:
1) Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers is on an absolute tear right now, having thrown for 22 touchdowns in his last six games. They're getting healthy and appear to have returned to 2011 form after a slow start and still have a shot to be the top seed in the NFC. (PR: 2)
2) Pittsburgh Steelers: Biased? Of course, but hey, Ben is sorta having his best year as a pro and you have to credit Todd Haley. The offense is clicking right now and there may be no better evidence than the play of the offensive line. The other day I read an article by Mel Kiper on every team's draft needs, and for the first time in at least six years, the offensive line wasn't one of them! It doesn't seem to matter who plays running back and with the defense improving every week, the sky is the limit. When this team is focused and healthy, they can beat anyone. Its why they're my Super Bowl pick. (PR: 5)
3) Chicago Bears: This defense has a long way to go to challenge the 2000 Ravens or 2008 Steelers, but they are well on their way to making history. Charles Tillman would be the favorite for defensive player of the year if not for the ridiculousness of J.J. Watts' sophomore campaign. Brandon Marshall has been the best receiver in football this year (last five games: 43 receptions, 583 yards, 6 touchdowns) and if he keeps up at this pace, I believe he may challenge some records by season's end. When Cutler is playing well, and he is, they can be the best team in football. (PR: 10)
4) New England Patriots: Slow start out of the gate, but what team didn't? You know they're going to win the AFC East, probably win 11 or 12 games, vie for a bye and challenge come January. They get boring don't they? (PR: 1)
5) Houston Texans: Balanced. That's the word that comes to mind. Their defense is one of the best of the game and they pound the rock as well as anyone. I wouldn't call them Super Bowl favorites as they are suspect in the passing game on both sides of the ball, but they are good enough to make a run. (PR: 4)
6) Atlanta Falcons: They're 8-0, which is why 99% of people would have them no worse than the top 3 in their rankings but I'm just not a huge believer. They started underrated, now they're overrated. These are not standings, and while what they've done is very impressive, I do not expect them to go undefeated, in fact, I'm thinking more along the lines of a three or four loss season. Regardless of the Saints record, they will present a challenge this week and I don't trust Atlanta's defense to stop Drew Brees. They'll win the division and they'll probably get a bye, but I still wouldn't expect them to beat Green Bay or Chicago within their own conference. (PR: 7)
7) Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning is on fire and could become the first player to win both Comeback Player of they Year and MVP in the same season. Better yet, their remaining schedule is a cake walk. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they ended up with the top seed in the AFC. (PR: 12)
8) New Orleans Saints: I know, I know! "BUT THEY'RE 3-5! THE SAINTS CAN'T BE IN THE TOP 10!" Actually, they can, because these are NOT standings, these are power rankings. I acknowledge that it will be very tough for this team to make the playoffs after the hole they've built for themselves but I still consider them a very good team, capable of beating anyone. I never imagined that the loss of Sean Payton would be this detrimental but the defense is improving. Sort of. And Drew Brees continues to dazzle. Their season isn't over yet and they will continue to compete with the big boys. (PR: 3)
9) San Francisco 49ers: I admit, I had my concerns. I thought Alex Smith overachieved and while I thought the defense would be good, I believed they would struggle to maintain their high level play from 2011. I was wrong. They've improved on both sides of the ball and Smith has done everything right thus far. They've held four of their last five opponents to six or less points and have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. (PR: 9)
10) Dallas Cowboys: This is the hardest team to analyze. They're as talented as anyone, the problem is they don't execute. (PR: 8)
11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: You know what would suck? Being the genius who drafted Doug Martin as a sleeper pick, got impatient and then traded him just as he went on a run. Then on top of that, the week you happen to play the guy you traded him to, he scores 61 points and single handedly beats your team. Boy, that would be just awful. Just freaking awful. (PR: 21)
12) New York Giants: This is the time of year they begin to fall apart. Eli hasn't looked that "elite" lately and the defense can't seem to stop anyone. (PR: 6)
13) Seattle Seahawks: I love how this team is built. Punishing run game that's complemented by one of the most physical defenses in the game. They will go as far as Russell Wilson can take them. (PR: 19)
14) Baltimore Ravens: This is the worst defense the Ravens have ever had. Injuries have decimated their chances and the offense has failed to pick up the slack. They'll make the playoffs but don't expect them to go anywhere. (PR: 11)
15) Detroit Lions: At 4-4 they're hardly out of the wild card race. The problem is, they have a very difficult schedule remaining, in a division that boasts the two best teams in the NFC. If they have any hope on staying competitive, Matt Stafford and Megatron will need to get back into their 2011 rhythm. (PR: 14)
16) Indianapolis Colts: I love when analysts say "no one had the Colts in the playoffs." Andrew Luck is the real deal and seems to improve with every game. (PR: 27)
17) San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers hasn't carried this team the way the Chargers needed him to. At this point, I find it hard to believe that they'll make the playoffs but they're only one game out of the AFC West race and the wild card. (PR: 17)
18) Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green can only make up for so many of Andy Dalton's shortcomings. (PR: 22)
19) Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick reminds me every week that he was never meant to be a franchise quarterback and it seems like even when he does plays well, the defense can't stop a paper cut. You have to think Andy Reid is done, though I wouldn't advise it. (PR: 13)
20) Minnesota Vikings: They won more games in the first seven weeks than they did all of last season. The problem is, Christian Ponder has his limitations... and they're not very high. (PR: 31)
21) Cleveland Browns: They've lost four games by a touchdown or less and blown leads against New York and Baltimore. Strong drafts the last few years appear to finally be paying off, even if their record doesn't reflect it. (PR: 28)
22) Miami Dolphins: I'll give 'em this, they're a lot better than I expected. Ryan Tannehill isn't the bust I thought he'd be and the defense has kept them competitive. Even if they don't make the playoffs, this season has already been a success for Joe Philbin. (PR: 32)
23) Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin has cooled off in recent weeks but is still proving to be well worth the cost the Redskins paid for him. Injuries to key members of the defense have hindered what could have otherwise been a pretty successful season. As good a pick as Alfred Morris was, RG3 needs weapons on the outside to work with. (PR: 24)
24) Tennessee Titans: I'm not sure what to say about this team other than that they're bad. Very bad. And they really shouldn't be. They were coming off a 9-7 season, with an offense that does have pieces in place. How did things go so wrong? Oh yeah, the defense is garbage and Chris Johnson is an asshole. (PR: 18)
25) Buffalo Bills: Every year I peg them as a wild card team and every year they disappoint me. They're sort of like a poor man's Cowboys. (PR: 15)
26) Kansas City Chiefs: Why Matt Cassel? Why? All this team needed you to do was not turn the ball over. Just hand the ball off, convert 3rd downs and limit mistakes. The talent was there, the defense was solid, the division was winnable. But no you went and turned the ball over 18 times! ... In six and a half games! (PR: 16)
27) Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton has the poise and maturity of a bad cheez-it. (PR: 20)
28) Oakland Raiders: What's that? You say Carson Palmer wasn't worth first and second round draft picks? Preposterous! (PR: 23)
29) Arizona Cardinals: That 4-0 start seems like a distant memory. Ray Horton and that defense deserve all the praise in the world for carrying the team this far. Its time to start looking for a new answer at quarterback. (PR: 30)
30) New York Jets: Boy, this team is just awful. The only talent they had is now on IR and yet they still won't start Tim Tebow. (PR: 25)
31) St. Louis Rams: Is it that hard to find a receiver? I like Danny Amendola but he's not exactly striking fear in any opposing defenses. (PR: 29)
32) Jacksonville Jaguars: The only thing I particularly like about the Jaguars is Maurice Jones-Drew, and he's hurt. You have to wonder how long the Blaine Gabbert experiment will last. (PR: 26)
BIggest Jump: Vikings, Colts (11)
Biggest Fall: Chiefs, Bills (10)
-Eric Brill
BIggest Jump: Vikings, Colts (11)
Biggest Fall: Chiefs, Bills (10)
-Eric Brill
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