Last Week: 12-2
Season: 107-53
HOU: 24
DET: 34
WAS: 20
DAL: 23
NE: 28
NYJ: 21
MIN: 20
CHI: 28
OAK: 21
CIN: 31
PIT: 23
CLE: 10
BUF: 27
IND: 24
TEN: 23
JAC: 17
DEN: 34
KC: 17
SEA: 17
MIA: 13
ATL: 23
TB: 26
BAL: 16
SD: 27
STL: 20
ARI: 10
SF: 24
NO: 31
GB: 38
NYG: 24
CAR: 27
PHI: 13
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Week 11 Predictions
Last Week: 10-4
Season: 95-51
MIA: 10
BUF: 20
ARI: 16
ATL: 27
TB: 23
CAR: 20
CLE: 19
DAL: 24
GB: 33
DET: 26
JAC: 7
HOU: 38
CIN: 30
KC: 17
NYJ: 9
STL: 24
PHI: 13
WAS: 26
NO: 34
OAK: 24
SD: 23
DEN: 27
IND: 20
NE: 31
BAL: 13
PIT: 16
CHI: 10
SF: 20
Season: 95-51
MIA: 10
BUF: 20
ARI: 16
ATL: 27
TB: 23
CAR: 20
CLE: 19
DAL: 24
GB: 33
DET: 26
JAC: 7
HOU: 38
CIN: 30
KC: 17
NYJ: 9
STL: 24
PHI: 13
WAS: 26
NO: 34
OAK: 24
SD: 23
DEN: 27
IND: 20
NE: 31
BAL: 13
PIT: 16
CHI: 10
SF: 20
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Week 10 Predictions
Last Week: 13-1
Season: 85-47
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Did you know the Jaguars have been outscored 126-34 at home this year?
IND: 27
JAC: 13
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This one could go either way so my formula for success is this: If Ryan Mathews breaks 100 yards, the Chargers win. If he doesn't they lose by 3. (The Buccaneers are the top run defense in football through 9 weeks).
SD: 23
TB: 26
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins: You don't think the Titans might have something to play for today? Coming off their worst loss of the Mike Munchak era, I expect these underachievers to realize that Bud Adams wasn't kidding and if they don't put their act together, changes will be made this offseason. Keep in mind, everyone might be on the Dolphins, but their record is only one game better. This shouldn't really be considered an upset pick but the media has made it into one.
TEN: 23
MIA: 20
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots: Every time these two play, the Bills go up by a touchdown or two early, and get everyone''s hopes up that they might win. But then around the 3rd quarter, New England starts chipping away, Buffalo doesn't even notice, and before you know it, that 21-7 lead has become a 42-28 loss.
BUF: 28
NE: 42
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens: If this were in Oakland, I'd be taking the Raiders.
OAK: 20
BAL: 24
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers: This is a battle of two quarterbacks on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of maturity, poise, intelligence-you name it.
DEN: 34
CAR: 17
New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals: I could really see this going either way but I have a weird feeling about these Giants. New York is still a mess from Sandy, they're traveling and even though they were challenged this week by coach Coughlin, they've been sloppy all year. Gotta go with my gut on this one.
NYG: 20
CIN: 27
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings: The loss of Percy Harvin is really going to hurt Christian Ponder and the passing game. They'd need another monster game out of Adrian Peterson to have much of a shot.
DET: 34
MIN: 23
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: If the Saints don't win this, they're done. Its in New Orleans, Roddy White has given them some nice bulletin board material and the defense appears to be improving since the return of Joe Vitt and Jonathan Vilma. Let's not forget that Drew Brees is still the superior quarterback.
ATL: 24
NO: 41
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks: The Jets have to travel to Seattle, where the Seahawks are unbeaten, and they still don't have a viable starting quarterback.
NYJ: 13
SEA: 24
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles: They were both desperate last week and that didn't change their fortunes much. I'll go Eagles in Philadelphia because I think they realized how well they can still run the ball if the commit.
DAL: 27
PHI: 31
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: Poor Rams. They started so well.
STL: 10
SF: 27
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears: I'm giving the slight edge to Chicago based on the fact that the only other even remotely cold game the Texans have played this year, was a squeker in New York a month ago.
HOU: 19
CHI: 23
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I'd love a signature romping this week....like by 40 points. Like where Byron Leftwich throws a touchdown in the 4th quarter.
KC: 0
PIT: 41
-Eric Brill
Season: 85-47
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Did you know the Jaguars have been outscored 126-34 at home this year?
IND: 27
JAC: 13
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This one could go either way so my formula for success is this: If Ryan Mathews breaks 100 yards, the Chargers win. If he doesn't they lose by 3. (The Buccaneers are the top run defense in football through 9 weeks).
SD: 23
TB: 26
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins: You don't think the Titans might have something to play for today? Coming off their worst loss of the Mike Munchak era, I expect these underachievers to realize that Bud Adams wasn't kidding and if they don't put their act together, changes will be made this offseason. Keep in mind, everyone might be on the Dolphins, but their record is only one game better. This shouldn't really be considered an upset pick but the media has made it into one.
TEN: 23
MIA: 20
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots: Every time these two play, the Bills go up by a touchdown or two early, and get everyone''s hopes up that they might win. But then around the 3rd quarter, New England starts chipping away, Buffalo doesn't even notice, and before you know it, that 21-7 lead has become a 42-28 loss.
BUF: 28
NE: 42
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens: If this were in Oakland, I'd be taking the Raiders.
OAK: 20
BAL: 24
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers: This is a battle of two quarterbacks on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of maturity, poise, intelligence-you name it.
DEN: 34
CAR: 17
New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals: I could really see this going either way but I have a weird feeling about these Giants. New York is still a mess from Sandy, they're traveling and even though they were challenged this week by coach Coughlin, they've been sloppy all year. Gotta go with my gut on this one.
NYG: 20
CIN: 27
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings: The loss of Percy Harvin is really going to hurt Christian Ponder and the passing game. They'd need another monster game out of Adrian Peterson to have much of a shot.
DET: 34
MIN: 23
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: If the Saints don't win this, they're done. Its in New Orleans, Roddy White has given them some nice bulletin board material and the defense appears to be improving since the return of Joe Vitt and Jonathan Vilma. Let's not forget that Drew Brees is still the superior quarterback.
ATL: 24
NO: 41
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks: The Jets have to travel to Seattle, where the Seahawks are unbeaten, and they still don't have a viable starting quarterback.
NYJ: 13
SEA: 24
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles: They were both desperate last week and that didn't change their fortunes much. I'll go Eagles in Philadelphia because I think they realized how well they can still run the ball if the commit.
DAL: 27
PHI: 31
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: Poor Rams. They started so well.
STL: 10
SF: 27
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears: I'm giving the slight edge to Chicago based on the fact that the only other even remotely cold game the Texans have played this year, was a squeker in New York a month ago.
HOU: 19
CHI: 23
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I'd love a signature romping this week....like by 40 points. Like where Byron Leftwich throws a touchdown in the 4th quarter.
KC: 0
PIT: 41
-Eric Brill
Friday, November 9, 2012
Midseason Power Rankings
We're past the halfway point of the 2012 season and I think an update to the power rankings is in order. (Click here for the Post Preseason Power Rankings)
Thus far, I'd say I've been most right (or at least feel the smartest) about the Colts and most wrong (dumbest) about the Chiefs as I had both making the playoffs.
As always, I will remind everyone that the way I order teams is by applying a scenario where, if any two teams were to play each other tomorrow, who would I predict to win? Meaning I'd predict the best team to beat the other 31 regardless and the last team to lose regardless of matchup. Of course I take into account their performance thus far, but just because you lose a game, does not mean you're a bad team or automatically worse than a team with a better record. This is an interpretation of what teams have done recently, and how much I believe in them. At this moment, who is the best team? Not the most successful to this point in the 2012 season. This is not a perfect science, but its a general guideline for you to at least understand my basis of thinking.
I've hammered the point enough, you either get it or you don't. So let's get at it:
1) Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers is on an absolute tear right now, having thrown for 22 touchdowns in his last six games. They're getting healthy and appear to have returned to 2011 form after a slow start and still have a shot to be the top seed in the NFC. (PR: 2)
2) Pittsburgh Steelers: Biased? Of course, but hey, Ben is sorta having his best year as a pro and you have to credit Todd Haley. The offense is clicking right now and there may be no better evidence than the play of the offensive line. The other day I read an article by Mel Kiper on every team's draft needs, and for the first time in at least six years, the offensive line wasn't one of them! It doesn't seem to matter who plays running back and with the defense improving every week, the sky is the limit. When this team is focused and healthy, they can beat anyone. Its why they're my Super Bowl pick. (PR: 5)
3) Chicago Bears: This defense has a long way to go to challenge the 2000 Ravens or 2008 Steelers, but they are well on their way to making history. Charles Tillman would be the favorite for defensive player of the year if not for the ridiculousness of J.J. Watts' sophomore campaign. Brandon Marshall has been the best receiver in football this year (last five games: 43 receptions, 583 yards, 6 touchdowns) and if he keeps up at this pace, I believe he may challenge some records by season's end. When Cutler is playing well, and he is, they can be the best team in football. (PR: 10)
4) New England Patriots: Slow start out of the gate, but what team didn't? You know they're going to win the AFC East, probably win 11 or 12 games, vie for a bye and challenge come January. They get boring don't they? (PR: 1)
5) Houston Texans: Balanced. That's the word that comes to mind. Their defense is one of the best of the game and they pound the rock as well as anyone. I wouldn't call them Super Bowl favorites as they are suspect in the passing game on both sides of the ball, but they are good enough to make a run. (PR: 4)
6) Atlanta Falcons: They're 8-0, which is why 99% of people would have them no worse than the top 3 in their rankings but I'm just not a huge believer. They started underrated, now they're overrated. These are not standings, and while what they've done is very impressive, I do not expect them to go undefeated, in fact, I'm thinking more along the lines of a three or four loss season. Regardless of the Saints record, they will present a challenge this week and I don't trust Atlanta's defense to stop Drew Brees. They'll win the division and they'll probably get a bye, but I still wouldn't expect them to beat Green Bay or Chicago within their own conference. (PR: 7)
7) Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning is on fire and could become the first player to win both Comeback Player of they Year and MVP in the same season. Better yet, their remaining schedule is a cake walk. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they ended up with the top seed in the AFC. (PR: 12)
8) New Orleans Saints: I know, I know! "BUT THEY'RE 3-5! THE SAINTS CAN'T BE IN THE TOP 10!" Actually, they can, because these are NOT standings, these are power rankings. I acknowledge that it will be very tough for this team to make the playoffs after the hole they've built for themselves but I still consider them a very good team, capable of beating anyone. I never imagined that the loss of Sean Payton would be this detrimental but the defense is improving. Sort of. And Drew Brees continues to dazzle. Their season isn't over yet and they will continue to compete with the big boys. (PR: 3)
9) San Francisco 49ers: I admit, I had my concerns. I thought Alex Smith overachieved and while I thought the defense would be good, I believed they would struggle to maintain their high level play from 2011. I was wrong. They've improved on both sides of the ball and Smith has done everything right thus far. They've held four of their last five opponents to six or less points and have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. (PR: 9)
10) Dallas Cowboys: This is the hardest team to analyze. They're as talented as anyone, the problem is they don't execute. (PR: 8)
12) New York Giants: This is the time of year they begin to fall apart. Eli hasn't looked that "elite" lately and the defense can't seem to stop anyone. (PR: 6)
14) Baltimore Ravens: This is the worst defense the Ravens have ever had. Injuries have decimated their chances and the offense has failed to pick up the slack. They'll make the playoffs but don't expect them to go anywhere. (PR: 11)
15) Detroit Lions: At 4-4 they're hardly out of the wild card race. The problem is, they have a very difficult schedule remaining, in a division that boasts the two best teams in the NFC. If they have any hope on staying competitive, Matt Stafford and Megatron will need to get back into their 2011 rhythm. (PR: 14)
16) Indianapolis Colts: I love when analysts say "no one had the Colts in the playoffs." Andrew Luck is the real deal and seems to improve with every game. (PR: 27)
17) San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers hasn't carried this team the way the Chargers needed him to. At this point, I find it hard to believe that they'll make the playoffs but they're only one game out of the AFC West race and the wild card. (PR: 17)
20) Minnesota Vikings: They won more games in the first seven weeks than they did all of last season. The problem is, Christian Ponder has his limitations... and they're not very high. (PR: 31)
21) Cleveland Browns: They've lost four games by a touchdown or less and blown leads against New York and Baltimore. Strong drafts the last few years appear to finally be paying off, even if their record doesn't reflect it. (PR: 28)
22) Miami Dolphins: I'll give 'em this, they're a lot better than I expected. Ryan Tannehill isn't the bust I thought he'd be and the defense has kept them competitive. Even if they don't make the playoffs, this season has already been a success for Joe Philbin. (PR: 32)
23) Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin has cooled off in recent weeks but is still proving to be well worth the cost the Redskins paid for him. Injuries to key members of the defense have hindered what could have otherwise been a pretty successful season. As good a pick as Alfred Morris was, RG3 needs weapons on the outside to work with. (PR: 24)
26) Kansas City Chiefs: Why Matt Cassel? Why? All this team needed you to do was not turn the ball over. Just hand the ball off, convert 3rd downs and limit mistakes. The talent was there, the defense was solid, the division was winnable. But no you went and turned the ball over 18 times! ... In six and a half games! (PR: 16)
27) Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton has the poise and maturity of a bad cheez-it. (PR: 20)
28) Oakland Raiders: What's that? You say Carson Palmer wasn't worth first and second round draft picks? Preposterous! (PR: 23)
29) Arizona Cardinals: That 4-0 start seems like a distant memory. Ray Horton and that defense deserve all the praise in the world for carrying the team this far. Its time to start looking for a new answer at quarterback. (PR: 30)
Thus far, I'd say I've been most right (or at least feel the smartest) about the Colts and most wrong (dumbest) about the Chiefs as I had both making the playoffs.
As always, I will remind everyone that the way I order teams is by applying a scenario where, if any two teams were to play each other tomorrow, who would I predict to win? Meaning I'd predict the best team to beat the other 31 regardless and the last team to lose regardless of matchup. Of course I take into account their performance thus far, but just because you lose a game, does not mean you're a bad team or automatically worse than a team with a better record. This is an interpretation of what teams have done recently, and how much I believe in them. At this moment, who is the best team? Not the most successful to this point in the 2012 season. This is not a perfect science, but its a general guideline for you to at least understand my basis of thinking.
I've hammered the point enough, you either get it or you don't. So let's get at it:
1) Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers is on an absolute tear right now, having thrown for 22 touchdowns in his last six games. They're getting healthy and appear to have returned to 2011 form after a slow start and still have a shot to be the top seed in the NFC. (PR: 2)
2) Pittsburgh Steelers: Biased? Of course, but hey, Ben is sorta having his best year as a pro and you have to credit Todd Haley. The offense is clicking right now and there may be no better evidence than the play of the offensive line. The other day I read an article by Mel Kiper on every team's draft needs, and for the first time in at least six years, the offensive line wasn't one of them! It doesn't seem to matter who plays running back and with the defense improving every week, the sky is the limit. When this team is focused and healthy, they can beat anyone. Its why they're my Super Bowl pick. (PR: 5)
3) Chicago Bears: This defense has a long way to go to challenge the 2000 Ravens or 2008 Steelers, but they are well on their way to making history. Charles Tillman would be the favorite for defensive player of the year if not for the ridiculousness of J.J. Watts' sophomore campaign. Brandon Marshall has been the best receiver in football this year (last five games: 43 receptions, 583 yards, 6 touchdowns) and if he keeps up at this pace, I believe he may challenge some records by season's end. When Cutler is playing well, and he is, they can be the best team in football. (PR: 10)
4) New England Patriots: Slow start out of the gate, but what team didn't? You know they're going to win the AFC East, probably win 11 or 12 games, vie for a bye and challenge come January. They get boring don't they? (PR: 1)
5) Houston Texans: Balanced. That's the word that comes to mind. Their defense is one of the best of the game and they pound the rock as well as anyone. I wouldn't call them Super Bowl favorites as they are suspect in the passing game on both sides of the ball, but they are good enough to make a run. (PR: 4)
6) Atlanta Falcons: They're 8-0, which is why 99% of people would have them no worse than the top 3 in their rankings but I'm just not a huge believer. They started underrated, now they're overrated. These are not standings, and while what they've done is very impressive, I do not expect them to go undefeated, in fact, I'm thinking more along the lines of a three or four loss season. Regardless of the Saints record, they will present a challenge this week and I don't trust Atlanta's defense to stop Drew Brees. They'll win the division and they'll probably get a bye, but I still wouldn't expect them to beat Green Bay or Chicago within their own conference. (PR: 7)
7) Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning is on fire and could become the first player to win both Comeback Player of they Year and MVP in the same season. Better yet, their remaining schedule is a cake walk. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they ended up with the top seed in the AFC. (PR: 12)
8) New Orleans Saints: I know, I know! "BUT THEY'RE 3-5! THE SAINTS CAN'T BE IN THE TOP 10!" Actually, they can, because these are NOT standings, these are power rankings. I acknowledge that it will be very tough for this team to make the playoffs after the hole they've built for themselves but I still consider them a very good team, capable of beating anyone. I never imagined that the loss of Sean Payton would be this detrimental but the defense is improving. Sort of. And Drew Brees continues to dazzle. Their season isn't over yet and they will continue to compete with the big boys. (PR: 3)
9) San Francisco 49ers: I admit, I had my concerns. I thought Alex Smith overachieved and while I thought the defense would be good, I believed they would struggle to maintain their high level play from 2011. I was wrong. They've improved on both sides of the ball and Smith has done everything right thus far. They've held four of their last five opponents to six or less points and have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. (PR: 9)
10) Dallas Cowboys: This is the hardest team to analyze. They're as talented as anyone, the problem is they don't execute. (PR: 8)
11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: You know what would suck? Being the genius who drafted Doug Martin as a sleeper pick, got impatient and then traded him just as he went on a run. Then on top of that, the week you happen to play the guy you traded him to, he scores 61 points and single handedly beats your team. Boy, that would be just awful. Just freaking awful. (PR: 21)
12) New York Giants: This is the time of year they begin to fall apart. Eli hasn't looked that "elite" lately and the defense can't seem to stop anyone. (PR: 6)
13) Seattle Seahawks: I love how this team is built. Punishing run game that's complemented by one of the most physical defenses in the game. They will go as far as Russell Wilson can take them. (PR: 19)
14) Baltimore Ravens: This is the worst defense the Ravens have ever had. Injuries have decimated their chances and the offense has failed to pick up the slack. They'll make the playoffs but don't expect them to go anywhere. (PR: 11)
15) Detroit Lions: At 4-4 they're hardly out of the wild card race. The problem is, they have a very difficult schedule remaining, in a division that boasts the two best teams in the NFC. If they have any hope on staying competitive, Matt Stafford and Megatron will need to get back into their 2011 rhythm. (PR: 14)
16) Indianapolis Colts: I love when analysts say "no one had the Colts in the playoffs." Andrew Luck is the real deal and seems to improve with every game. (PR: 27)
17) San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers hasn't carried this team the way the Chargers needed him to. At this point, I find it hard to believe that they'll make the playoffs but they're only one game out of the AFC West race and the wild card. (PR: 17)
18) Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green can only make up for so many of Andy Dalton's shortcomings. (PR: 22)
19) Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick reminds me every week that he was never meant to be a franchise quarterback and it seems like even when he does plays well, the defense can't stop a paper cut. You have to think Andy Reid is done, though I wouldn't advise it. (PR: 13)
20) Minnesota Vikings: They won more games in the first seven weeks than they did all of last season. The problem is, Christian Ponder has his limitations... and they're not very high. (PR: 31)
21) Cleveland Browns: They've lost four games by a touchdown or less and blown leads against New York and Baltimore. Strong drafts the last few years appear to finally be paying off, even if their record doesn't reflect it. (PR: 28)
22) Miami Dolphins: I'll give 'em this, they're a lot better than I expected. Ryan Tannehill isn't the bust I thought he'd be and the defense has kept them competitive. Even if they don't make the playoffs, this season has already been a success for Joe Philbin. (PR: 32)
23) Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin has cooled off in recent weeks but is still proving to be well worth the cost the Redskins paid for him. Injuries to key members of the defense have hindered what could have otherwise been a pretty successful season. As good a pick as Alfred Morris was, RG3 needs weapons on the outside to work with. (PR: 24)
24) Tennessee Titans: I'm not sure what to say about this team other than that they're bad. Very bad. And they really shouldn't be. They were coming off a 9-7 season, with an offense that does have pieces in place. How did things go so wrong? Oh yeah, the defense is garbage and Chris Johnson is an asshole. (PR: 18)
25) Buffalo Bills: Every year I peg them as a wild card team and every year they disappoint me. They're sort of like a poor man's Cowboys. (PR: 15)
26) Kansas City Chiefs: Why Matt Cassel? Why? All this team needed you to do was not turn the ball over. Just hand the ball off, convert 3rd downs and limit mistakes. The talent was there, the defense was solid, the division was winnable. But no you went and turned the ball over 18 times! ... In six and a half games! (PR: 16)
27) Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton has the poise and maturity of a bad cheez-it. (PR: 20)
28) Oakland Raiders: What's that? You say Carson Palmer wasn't worth first and second round draft picks? Preposterous! (PR: 23)
29) Arizona Cardinals: That 4-0 start seems like a distant memory. Ray Horton and that defense deserve all the praise in the world for carrying the team this far. Its time to start looking for a new answer at quarterback. (PR: 30)
30) New York Jets: Boy, this team is just awful. The only talent they had is now on IR and yet they still won't start Tim Tebow. (PR: 25)
31) St. Louis Rams: Is it that hard to find a receiver? I like Danny Amendola but he's not exactly striking fear in any opposing defenses. (PR: 29)
32) Jacksonville Jaguars: The only thing I particularly like about the Jaguars is Maurice Jones-Drew, and he's hurt. You have to wonder how long the Blaine Gabbert experiment will last. (PR: 26)
BIggest Jump: Vikings, Colts (11)
Biggest Fall: Chiefs, Bills (10)
-Eric Brill
BIggest Jump: Vikings, Colts (11)
Biggest Fall: Chiefs, Bills (10)
-Eric Brill
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Midseason Prediction Revisions
We're nine weeks into the season and you know what that means! Time to revise all the predictions I was ooh so wrong about in the preseason so that when these come true, I can act like I called it the whole time.
My previous prediction is in parenthesis.
I feel fairly confident about every projected division winner I have, with the exception of the NFC North. This will come down to the wire for Green Bay and Chicago; the two teams I believe to be the best in the NFC. The Bears defense is having a season for the ages while Aaron Rodgers has throw 22 touchdowns in his last six games. This week, the Packers are on a much needed bye week to heal their ailing receiving corpse while the Bears have a date with the red hot Texans. In all likelihood, we won't know how the division will shape out until the two play in week 15, but you can count on both making the playoffs.
The Lions have dug themselves into a hole and Minnesota peaked early. Both have rather difficult schedules remaining and while the playoffs aren't out of the question, neither have shown much to make me believe that they could make a push, given how tight the NFC race is going to be.
So I was wrong about the 49ers. They were not overrated last year and if anything, their defense is probably even better. Alex Smith has been very impressive, as he has been a playmaking game manager, if you can imagine such a thing. The Seahawks remain a very real threat for a wild card and are the kind of team that can beat anyone at home. That secondary never ceases to amaze me.
The Cardinals and Rams started out well but have slumped in recent weeks. Both defenses have played very well, and their coordinators, especially Ray Horton in Arizona, deserve a ton of credit. Clearly neither John Skelton nor Kevin Kolb is the long term answer, and it appears likely that they will address the position in the draft. The Rams, specifically Sam Bradford, desperately need a playmaker at receiver and it remains to be seen if Daryl Richardson can be expected to take over for Steven Jackson, as this will likely be his last year.
Divisional Round
I'm sticking with my original Super Bowl pick. Yes, I realize I'm slightly irrational when it comes to the Steelers and Saints (I'm determined to be right) but I think they both have a run in them.
Here's what's crazy, half of the teams in the NFC all have a reasonable shot at landing that coveted sixth seed.
Outside of their five virtual playoff locks (Bears, Falcons, 49ers, Giants and Packers) the only teams in the conference who even have winning records are the Seahawks and Vikings at 5-4. After that, the Lions and Buccaneers are even at 4-4, the Cardinals are 4-5 and the Cowboys, Eagles and Saints each have three wins.
People look at New Orleans and write them off for their start but guess what, they are only a game and half back of being a playoff team! You don't think Drew Brees could get this team on a 6-2 run? I do and the more I look at it, the more I like their chances.
I'm starting to think that nine wins will be enough to take that final spot. I like the Seahawks... at home, where they have four games remaining. If they win those, that would put them at nine wins. I've explained above that I don't trust Minnesota to maintain their early success and for them to make the playoffs they would need to go on a 4-3 run. Impossible? No. Unlikely? Very.
Detroit and Tampa are in it, but I have a tough time believing that Josh Freeman or Matthew Stafford can be trusted to lead their teams to winning records through that kind of adversity. Arizona has lost five straight and is in a free fall.
I'm getting tired of defending Dallas only to see them blow a lead and hear ESPN debate all week what has gone wrong with America's team. Philadelphia is a mess across the board.
So for now, I'm going to stick with my gut. Meaning until the Saints are mathematically eliminated.
Don't worry, the Steelers are winning the Super Bowl regardless.
My previous prediction is in parenthesis.
AFC EAST
New England Patriots: 11-5 (14-2)
Miami Dolphins: 7-9 (1-15)
Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (9-7)
New York Jets: 5-11 (4-12)
Who'd have thought the Patriots run offense would rank higher (4th) than their pass offense (5th) through eight games?
This is clearly their division and I would be absolutely shocked if any of these other teams remained in the wild card race for much longer. The Dolphins have been a pleasant surprise but with two games against New England and a contest in San Francisco looming, I have a tough time seeing them running the table in their remaining five to maintain a winning record. If this team were to win seven or eight games, I would call this season a success considering I had them pegged as the worst team in football coming in. The team that may have overtaken them for that spot is the Jets, who, on top of being untalented and dysfunctional to begin with, have lost their top playmakers on both sides of the ball for the season.
From a talent perspective, Buffalo has the best shot of these three to still make a push for the playoffs but with how pitiful their defense is, and how sporadic Ryan Fitzpatrick's decision making is, I just don't see it happening.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5 (11-5)
Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 (9-7)
Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10 (5-11)
Cleveland Browns: 4-12 (3-13)
It took a multitude of injuries but my prediction for the AFC North actually seems fairly attainable. I fully expect Pittsburgh to take the division, considering Baltimore's defense has fallen from grace in wake of their laundry list of ailments on that side of the ball. The only change here is that I do expect them to make the playoffs as a wild card. It looks like nine wins in the AFC will be good enough for the playoffs and Baltimore's 6-2 start will make up for less than stellar play in the second half of the season.
Cincinnati has underwhelmed, lost four straight and Andy Dalton is having the sophomore slump we all feared/assumed he would. The Browns, in spite of their porous record, have impressed me. The defense keeps them competitive; the key is winning these close games. For those of you who haven't been paying attention (who could you blame you?) the Browns have been better than their record would suggest. They've lost four games by a touchdown or less, and in losses against the Giants and Ravens, actually held leads that they blew. So I stand by my belief that they are better than the Bengals though the standings probably won't reflect that, come January.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans: 13-3 (12-4)
Indianapolis Colts: 8-8 (9-7)
Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (8-8)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-14 (5-11)
Houston looks like the class of the AFC right now and might have both the offensive and defensive players of the year in Arian Foster and J.J. Watt. As much as I like the Colts, and as smart as I feel about having them as a wild card team, it will be an uphill battle. They have yet to play Houston and have trips to New England and Detroit coming in the next few weeks. It will take some Luck (haha) but I still think they'll make the playoffs.
Tennessee has disappointed me in virtually all phases and there will be some changes this offseason. That performance against Chicago was abysmal.
Who'd have thought five wins would be generous? The Jaguars are dead last in points scored, total yards, passing yards and are 28th in the run. That's not a recipe for success. its a recipe for the top pick in the draft. Shad Khan is not pleased.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos: 12-4 (8-8)
San Diego Chargers: 8-8 (9-7)
Oakland Raiders: 6-10 (5-11)
Kansas City Chiefs: 3-13 (10-6)
I definitely got this division the most wrong.
Peyton Manning is the favorite for comeback player of the year and MVP. I'm guessing that would be a first. Looking at the rest of their schedule, there really isn't a game I expect them to lose. I'll bet they slip up once but they have a smooth path the rest of the way to the post season.
You have to think Norv Turner is done if San Diego misses the playoffs again, which they probably will. Oakland is still Oakland. They'll miss the playoffs and then trade all their draft picks away to get some washed up former first round pick.
The Chiefs might be the biggest disappointment of the 2012 season. I had high hopes; all Matt Cassel had to do was take care of the football and let the running game and defense do the rest. But no, he's turned the ball over 18 times in just over six games this year. I mean, how do you go eight games without ever leading? That's unbelievable. (My luck, they'll break that streak against the Steelers this week)
NFC EAST
New York Giants: 10-6 (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (10-6)
Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9 (7-9)
Washington Redskins: 5-11 (5-11)
The Giants are not the elite team the media touts them to be. They're good but in a more consistent division, they wouldn't make the playoffs. If you look at their seven remaining games, there isn't a game left where I can say definitively, "yes, the Giants will win." Am I saying they're going to lose them all, of course not, but their remaining trek to the playoffs is as difficult as any in the NFL.
The Cowboys seem determined to make me look like an idiot for picking them to win the division. They're not out of it, but they'd probably need to win six out of eight for the second wild card.
Philadelphia is such a mess I don't even to know where to begin. So let's not. Point is, Andy Reid & Michael Vick are on the hot seat and this could be the end of their tenure with the Eagles. Screw math, there is no way they're going to the playoffs.
RG3 has been even better than expected but this year is about adjusting to the pro game, not winning the Super Bowl.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears: 13-3 (11-5)
Green Bay Packers: 12-4 (14-2)
Detroit Lions: 7-9 (8-8)
Minnesota Vikings: 7-9 (6-10)
I feel fairly confident about every projected division winner I have, with the exception of the NFC North. This will come down to the wire for Green Bay and Chicago; the two teams I believe to be the best in the NFC. The Bears defense is having a season for the ages while Aaron Rodgers has throw 22 touchdowns in his last six games. This week, the Packers are on a much needed bye week to heal their ailing receiving corpse while the Bears have a date with the red hot Texans. In all likelihood, we won't know how the division will shape out until the two play in week 15, but you can count on both making the playoffs.
The Lions have dug themselves into a hole and Minnesota peaked early. Both have rather difficult schedules remaining and while the playoffs aren't out of the question, neither have shown much to make me believe that they could make a push, given how tight the NFC race is going to be.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: 13-3 (13-3)
New Orleans Saints: 9-7 (12-4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8 (7-9)
Carolina Panthers: 4-12 (7-9)
Atlanta is undefeated at the half way point and appear poised to make a run. I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Saints swept the upcoming series, but the division is clearly in the bag for the Falcons. I expect them to drop as many as four of their remaining games and how far they'll go in January remains to be seen, but so far they have done everything right.
The Saints, well, they've done most things wrong. The defense, in terms of yardage is on pace to break the NFL record as the worst in history. In spite of that, I still think they have shot. They've won three out of four and as long as Drew Brees is under center, they can compete with anybody. It will be difficult, but the playoffs remain a very real possibility for a team that started 0-4.
The Buccaneers have been a very good team and have had the most productive rookie class of anyone thus far in 2012. They have to be considered contenders for the final wild card at this point but its up to Josh Freeman to get them there.
The Panthers, well they've been pretty bad. Cam Newton's immaturity has been under the microscope in recent weeks and clearly doesn't handle losing well. I don't think many expected them to have just two wins through eight weeks, but there were going to be growing pains. It wasn't like Newton was going to win the Super Bowl in his second year. Not to mention, injuries have hit this team about as hard as anyone. I don't think Ron Rivera should lose his job, but if they can't pick up some decisive wins in the second half, we could see an overhaul in the offseason.
Atlanta is undefeated at the half way point and appear poised to make a run. I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Saints swept the upcoming series, but the division is clearly in the bag for the Falcons. I expect them to drop as many as four of their remaining games and how far they'll go in January remains to be seen, but so far they have done everything right.
The Saints, well, they've done most things wrong. The defense, in terms of yardage is on pace to break the NFL record as the worst in history. In spite of that, I still think they have shot. They've won three out of four and as long as Drew Brees is under center, they can compete with anybody. It will be difficult, but the playoffs remain a very real possibility for a team that started 0-4.
The Buccaneers have been a very good team and have had the most productive rookie class of anyone thus far in 2012. They have to be considered contenders for the final wild card at this point but its up to Josh Freeman to get them there.
The Panthers, well they've been pretty bad. Cam Newton's immaturity has been under the microscope in recent weeks and clearly doesn't handle losing well. I don't think many expected them to have just two wins through eight weeks, but there were going to be growing pains. It wasn't like Newton was going to win the Super Bowl in his second year. Not to mention, injuries have hit this team about as hard as anyone. I don't think Ron Rivera should lose his job, but if they can't pick up some decisive wins in the second half, we could see an overhaul in the offseason.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers: 11-5 (8-8)
Seattle Seahawks: 9-7 (9-7)
Arizona Cardinals: 6-10 (2-14)
St. Louis Rams: 5-11 (6-10)
So I was wrong about the 49ers. They were not overrated last year and if anything, their defense is probably even better. Alex Smith has been very impressive, as he has been a playmaking game manager, if you can imagine such a thing. The Seahawks remain a very real threat for a wild card and are the kind of team that can beat anyone at home. That secondary never ceases to amaze me.
The Cardinals and Rams started out well but have slumped in recent weeks. Both defenses have played very well, and their coordinators, especially Ray Horton in Arizona, deserve a ton of credit. Clearly neither John Skelton nor Kevin Kolb is the long term answer, and it appears likely that they will address the position in the draft. The Rams, specifically Sam Bradford, desperately need a playmaker at receiver and it remains to be seen if Daryl Richardson can be expected to take over for Steven Jackson, as this will likely be his last year.
Awards
MVP: Peyton Manning (Tom Brady)
Offensive Player of the Year: Brandon Marshall (Brandon Marshall)
Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt (Lamarr Woodley)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck (Russell Wilson)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Luke Kuechly (Chandler Jones)
Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning (Peyton Manning)
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians and Chuck Pagano (Pete Carroll)
How was I supposed to know Wade Phillips wasn't blowing smoke out of his ass when he touted J.J. Watt as a future hall of famer? Charles Tillman is having one hell of a year as well so I tend to think it comes down to these two.
See my stat projections below to understand why Marshall remains my favorite for offensive player of the year.
Otherwise a few of these could go a couple different ways and I wouldn't really argue it.
You have to think Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady will all be considered for MVP as well, and maybe even Watt depending on how he finishes.
Offensive rookie will come down to what the voters value more: Andrew Luck's wins or Robert Griffin's fantasy points. If the Colts miss the playoffs you can bet that the Redskins young star will take it. Defensively, Jones, Lavonte David, Vontaze Burflict and Morris Claiborne will all be in the conversation as well.
Though there is an argument to be made for Adrian Peterson as the comeback player of the year, he never actually missed much time in terms of games and his career was never in jeopardy. Peyton on the other hand, not only returned to play when some thought he would retire, but is having one of his best seasons as a pro and is on his way to an unprecedented, fifth MVP award.
Leaders
Passing Yardage: Drew Brees-4900 (Tom Brady-5600)
Passing Touchdowns: Aaron Rodgers-47 (Aaron Rodgers-54)
Rushing Yards: Adrian Peterson-1500 (Chris Johnson-1700)
Rushing Touchdowns: Arian Foster-19 (Darren McFadden-17)
Receptions: Brandon Marshall-134 (Brandon Marshall-134)
Receiving Yards: Brandon Marshall-1750 (Brandon Marshall-1750)
Receiving Touchdowns: Brandon Marshall-17 (Jimmy Graham-20)
Tackles: Luke Kuechly-150 (Luke Kuechly-200)
Sacks: Von Miller-17.5 (DeMarcus Ware-25)
Interceptions: Tim Jennings-9 (Joe Haden-9)
Brady could still easily lead in yardage but he's certainly not breaking any records. Interestingly enough, Brees is the only quarterback currently on pace for 5000 yards after having three, almost four, in 2011.
I don't think I need to discuss what disappointments Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden have been. Arian Foster is on a tear, having scored a touchdown in twelve straight games dating back to last season and Adrian Peterson seems to have forgotten he tore his ACL.
I'm sticking with Brandon Marshall as the top receiver but now I've got him going for the triple crown. With Graham banged up, I think he's lost too much ground to lead in touchdowns so I'm going with the Bears superstar across the board.
Defensively, Ware has not been the beast I expected so I'm going with the man currently tied for second in Von Miller. In tackles I'm sticking with Kuechly and in interceptions, I'm going with Tim Jennings who currently holds the lead for that ridiculous Bears defense.
Wild Card Round
6) Indianapolis Colts: 17 6) Seattle Seahawks: 38
3) New England Patriots: 31 3) San Francisco 49ers: 24
5) Baltimore Ravens: 13 5) Green Bay Packers: 27
4) Pittsburgh Steelers: 27 4) New York Giants: 23
Divisional Round
4) Pittsburgh Steelers: 35 6) New Orleans Saints: 34
1) Houston Texans: 24 1) Atlanta Falcons: 31
3) New England Patriots: 30 5) Green Bay Packers: 27
2) Denver Broncos: 33 2) Chicago Bears: 24
Conference Championships
4) Pittsburgh Steelers: 30 6) New Orleans Saints: 26
2) Denver Broncos: 23 1) Green Bay Packers: 23
Super Bowl XLVII
New Orleans Saints: 24
Pittsburgh Steelers: 34
I'm sticking with my original Super Bowl pick. Yes, I realize I'm slightly irrational when it comes to the Steelers and Saints (I'm determined to be right) but I think they both have a run in them.
Here's what's crazy, half of the teams in the NFC all have a reasonable shot at landing that coveted sixth seed.
Outside of their five virtual playoff locks (Bears, Falcons, 49ers, Giants and Packers) the only teams in the conference who even have winning records are the Seahawks and Vikings at 5-4. After that, the Lions and Buccaneers are even at 4-4, the Cardinals are 4-5 and the Cowboys, Eagles and Saints each have three wins.
People look at New Orleans and write them off for their start but guess what, they are only a game and half back of being a playoff team! You don't think Drew Brees could get this team on a 6-2 run? I do and the more I look at it, the more I like their chances.
I'm starting to think that nine wins will be enough to take that final spot. I like the Seahawks... at home, where they have four games remaining. If they win those, that would put them at nine wins. I've explained above that I don't trust Minnesota to maintain their early success and for them to make the playoffs they would need to go on a 4-3 run. Impossible? No. Unlikely? Very.
Detroit and Tampa are in it, but I have a tough time believing that Josh Freeman or Matthew Stafford can be trusted to lead their teams to winning records through that kind of adversity. Arizona has lost five straight and is in a free fall.
I'm getting tired of defending Dallas only to see them blow a lead and hear ESPN debate all week what has gone wrong with America's team. Philadelphia is a mess across the board.
So for now, I'm going to stick with my gut. Meaning until the Saints are mathematically eliminated.
Don't worry, the Steelers are winning the Super Bowl regardless.
Coaches Who Will Get Fired
Norv Turner
Pat Shurmur
Ken Whisenhunt
Leslie Frazier
Andy Reid
Marvin Lewis
Mike Munchak
Jason Garrett
Only changes were the additions of Munchak and Garrett.
Don't be surprised if Jaguars owner, Shad Khan, makes an irrational move and pulls the plug on Mike Mularkey after only one season. Romeo Crennel is in danger too but I think he'll get another year to prove himself. I'm hesitant to keep Whisenhunt on there but you have to think that the Cardinals can only have so many seasons of mediocrity before a change is made. Coach Frazier could go either way as well.
-Eric Brill
Mike Munchak
Jason Garrett
Only changes were the additions of Munchak and Garrett.
Don't be surprised if Jaguars owner, Shad Khan, makes an irrational move and pulls the plug on Mike Mularkey after only one season. Romeo Crennel is in danger too but I think he'll get another year to prove himself. I'm hesitant to keep Whisenhunt on there but you have to think that the Cardinals can only have so many seasons of mediocrity before a change is made. Coach Frazier could go either way as well.
-Eric Brill
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Week 9 Predictions
Last Week: 10-4
Season: 72-46
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers: Part of me wants to think that this is the kind of game Jamaal Charles goes for 180 but the Chiefs seem to turn the ball over every other play.
KC: 13
SD: 27
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals: Peyton is just too good right now. Oh how I wish he'd gone to the NFC..
DEN: 34
CIN: 17
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns: Baltimore is reeling; coming off a 30 point loss while Cleveland has won two of three. This is either going to be a blowout for the Ravens or a huge upset. I'm trying to keep the Steeler fan in me in check but the Ravens can't possibly lose this coming off a bye, can they?
BAL: 30
CLE: 13
Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers: Coach Whisenhunt called his guys out this week. Against a normal opponent I'd be more optimistic, but Aaron Rodgers has just been too good lately.
ARI: 13
GB: 31
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans: Mario Williams' homecoming doesn't appear to be getting much attention. I wonder why?
BUF: 24
HOU: 38
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts: Reggie Wayne leads the NFL in targets. The Dolphins lead the NFL in targets allowed. I like it.
MIA: 17
IND: 20
Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars: This could be a trap game for Detroit, especially after watching these Jags give the Packers a run for their money last week.
DET: 23
JAC: 10
Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans: Brandon Marshall should have fun with this matchup.
CHI: 34
TEN: 20
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins: When the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent wins. When they lose, the challenger takes it.
CAR: 24
WAS: 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Oakland Raiders: The loss of Carl Nicks hurts but its not like Oakalnd will exploit it. Josh Freeman is quietly having a very nice season.
TB: 26
OAK: 24
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks: Vikings have the better offense, the Seahawks have the better defense. Hmm...
MIN: 19
SEA: 23
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants: The Steelers have to travel the day of the game while the Giants have dealt with loss of power, flooding and general dissarray all week. The question is, will those issues distract New York, or fuel them?
PIT: 37
NYG: 34
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons: I should stop picking against Atlanta.
DAL: 31
ATL: 30
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints: Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. I think I've picked the Saints to win every week this season.
PHI: 25
NO: 34
Season: 72-46
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers: Part of me wants to think that this is the kind of game Jamaal Charles goes for 180 but the Chiefs seem to turn the ball over every other play.
KC: 13
SD: 27
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals: Peyton is just too good right now. Oh how I wish he'd gone to the NFC..
DEN: 34
CIN: 17
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns: Baltimore is reeling; coming off a 30 point loss while Cleveland has won two of three. This is either going to be a blowout for the Ravens or a huge upset. I'm trying to keep the Steeler fan in me in check but the Ravens can't possibly lose this coming off a bye, can they?
BAL: 30
CLE: 13
Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers: Coach Whisenhunt called his guys out this week. Against a normal opponent I'd be more optimistic, but Aaron Rodgers has just been too good lately.
ARI: 13
GB: 31
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans: Mario Williams' homecoming doesn't appear to be getting much attention. I wonder why?
BUF: 24
HOU: 38
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts: Reggie Wayne leads the NFL in targets. The Dolphins lead the NFL in targets allowed. I like it.
MIA: 17
IND: 20
Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars: This could be a trap game for Detroit, especially after watching these Jags give the Packers a run for their money last week.
DET: 23
JAC: 10
Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans: Brandon Marshall should have fun with this matchup.
CHI: 34
TEN: 20
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins: When the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent wins. When they lose, the challenger takes it.
CAR: 24
WAS: 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Oakland Raiders: The loss of Carl Nicks hurts but its not like Oakalnd will exploit it. Josh Freeman is quietly having a very nice season.
TB: 26
OAK: 24
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks: Vikings have the better offense, the Seahawks have the better defense. Hmm...
MIN: 19
SEA: 23
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants: The Steelers have to travel the day of the game while the Giants have dealt with loss of power, flooding and general dissarray all week. The question is, will those issues distract New York, or fuel them?
PIT: 37
NYG: 34
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons: I should stop picking against Atlanta.
DAL: 31
ATL: 30
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints: Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. I think I've picked the Saints to win every week this season.
PHI: 25
NO: 34
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