- While I think what Andy Reid and Co. are hoping to trade down, I doubt they will manage to pull that off.
- The reality of this class, as anyone who has spent even fifteen minutes studying it can tell you, is that this is the worst year in recent memory to have a top pick. There is no cut and dry top prospect, no quarterback who stands above the rest.
- While Kansas City has had, in my opinion, an excellent offseason thus far, they are no where near set, as far what they will do with this pick. Securing receiver Dwayne Bowe, franchising tackle Branden Albert and trading for a franchise quarterback in Alex Smith were all good moves for an organization coming off an abysmal 2012 season. The way I look at this, is that they will speak to most any prospect garnering top ten attention. They will continue to act as if they have no idea who they will take with this pick and pray that one of the teams picking in that 3-9 range will trade up, likely in an attempt at landing a guy like Geno Smith, who, as you will see later on, I don't even consider to be the best QB in this class. Because I don't believe any team will want to pay the inevitably steep price that the Chiefs are going to ask for, they will be left with choosing between a handful of guys, the favorite amongst most media pundits, as you're probably aware is Joeckel.
- It doesn't sound as if they believe they can ink Albert to a long term deal protecting Smith's blind side, and they already cut ties with RT Eric Winston, who is still on the market as of this writing. I think shoring up the line is a must, especially if they only have Albert for one more year. Joeckel has the look of a perennial Pro Bowler, having drawn comparisons to Jake Long. Some believe that Central Michigan OT, Eric Fisher is actually the better prospect so I would not be the least bit surprised if the Chiefs took that route either, as both are top tier options.
- Recently, some murmuring has begun that Sharrif Floyd, the DT from Florida will also be in the conversation. I have a tough time believing that it will be him, as the Chiefs have used first round picks on defensive linemen in three of the last five years (recently departed Glenn Dorsey, 5th overall in 2008, Tyson Jackson 3rd overall in 2009 and Dontari Poe, 11th overall in 2012). Its not as if Floyd is a shoe in Pro Bowler and in other years I don't think he'd even be in top ten consideration. Until further notice, it appears that Joeckel is the most likely candidate for a rebuilding Chiefs team.
An athletic freak who blew up the combine and would fit in well as the Leo in Gus Bradley's new system. For years the talk in Jacksonville has been about finding a reliable pass rusher and it appears that Jordan fits the bill. He is tall, fast and is being compared to Aldon Smith (though I certainly hope he is more well rounded). His versatility allows him to line up all over the defense, is big enough to cover tight ends and is quick enough to handle zone responsibilities in either the flat or over the middle. He will need to be coached up but he has the potential to become a top rusher at the next level. Admittedly, the Jaguars could go a couple different directions here. Should they prefer Ezekial Ansah, Barkevious Mingo or even Jarvis Jones, they could certainly go that route and still improve upon their last ranked pass rush.
- This teams has needs across the board, including offensive and defensive tackle, as well as CB, should they deem Dee Milliner worthy, or even looking to a QB, if the new regime in Jacksonville agrees that Blaine Gabbert is a total bust. While I don't think that any QB is worth taking this high, it certainly would not be the first time a team has reached and I maintain that we we'll see at least two go in the top ten before this is all said and done. I think Jaguars fans are tired of watching their team either play it safe, or reach and bust. This year, they need to find a difference maker and I think that that guy is Jordan. Otherwise, the whispers will continue that this organization is destined for a move.
This pick could change drastically depending on what the Raiders ultimately do with Carson Palmer, who is reportedly refusing to cut his $15.3 million cap hit. If Oakland cuts him outright, they'll save a little less than six million in 2013, but would create roughly nine million in dead money. Luckily, they would absorb that dead money hit entirely this year, and be free of the disastrous ordeal altogether after that. It seems likely that they will try to trade him first for a late round pick to a QB needy team, perhaps Buffalo or Arizona, as a stop gap starter next year, but I think that ultimately, no team will want to take on that kind of contract and Palmer will be cut before April 25th. They aren't going to let this approach the level of drama that we saw in Cincinnati two years ago, but this certainly isn't helping to dispel the shadows that have been cast on Palmer's one promising career.
- Until the deal is done, I have them taking Floyd to replace unrestricted free agent Richard Seymour, and hopefully shore up their front line but again, given the likelihood that we've seen the end of the Palmer experiment in Oakland, I fully expect that by the time I release my second mock, I'll have Geno Smith here because there is no way in hell they're going into week one with Terrelle Pryor under center.
You have to think that new Head Coach Chip Kelly would like to bring in his former star pass rusher Dion Jordan if given the chance, but as I have him lotted to Jacksonville, he'll settle for the best corner in this class. With Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of the picture, the Eagles secondary is in a state of flux. Having watched Cary Williams in Baltimore the last few years, I hardly consider he or recently acquired Bradley Fletcher, long term solutions. In comes Milliner, who can be a day one starter and has the look of a perennial Pro Bowler. He's a safe pick who fills a need and has upside, so unless Jordan is here or they believe that Ansah is worth a look, this one seems pretty cut and dry.
- Unlike some, I don't see them going offensive line here. Keep in mind that this team will get Jason Peters and Todd Herremans back from injury next season and there are reports that they are in talks with Eric Winston as well. So while Eric Fisher warrants consideration, I don't think he'll be the pick. While I'm not a fan of Geno Smith, I wouldn't put it past them to take him if he is available, though I think it would be a far better idea to trade back into the end of the first round and try to take E.J. Manuel instead, who I believe offers the greatest upside for a team looking for an athletic signal caller. If I'm the Eagles, I'm letting someone else reach for Smith while I snag the best player on the board in Milliner.
Just as the Eagles missed on their guy in Jordan, so too do the Lions miss on their top choice in Milliner. Instead I think their decision will come down to two guys, more specifically, two positions. What's interesting here is that Detroit lost both their starting tackles (Gosder Cherilus bolted for Indy and Jeff Backus retired) as well as both their starting defensive ends (Kyle Vanden Bosch was cut while Cliff Avril joined the Seahawks) so in my opinion I think it comes down to Ezekial Ansah and Eric Fisher. Depending on your mindset, the Lions could take the man who offers JPP-type upside as a pass rusher or take the man some believe to be the best and safest player in this draft, in Fisher. I'm torn at the moment so this pick will likely flip flop a few times over the next couple weeks but for now I'm going with the game changer in Ansah.
Poor Brownies. They're hoping to land Jordan, Milliner or Ansah and in this version they're all gone. Eric Fisher makes no sense after taking Mitchell Shwart last year and there are no receivers worth this high a pick so I have them taking the guy I'm hoping somehow slips to 17 in Jarvis Jones. Before the combine he was considered by many to be the best player in this class, but a poor showing at his Pro Day and lingering questions about a diagnosis of spinal stenosis that could potentially shorten his career have put his positioning as a top prospect in question. Though as a Steelers fan I hope he doesn't end up in Cleveland, he would undoubtedly be a great fit. His relentless motor and untapped potential make him the best 3-4 OLB prospect in this class. Its just a matter of which team will take the risk.
Recent reports have said that the Cardinals do not consider any quarterback in this class to be worthy of the seventh overall pick. Given that there is plenty of value to be had in the second round and that by my own estimate, the difference between the best quarterback and the fifth best quarterback is miniscule, not reaching for one is a great move. I realize that they are desperate to find someone who can Fitzgerald the ball (I'm among them), reaching for a guy and being stuck looking for another one in a few years is simply not the answer. Instead they'll take Fisher, who can man the blind side of whoever the poor bastard is who does end up under center in Arizona, as a Pro Bowler for the next decade.
Bet you haven't seen this one yet, huh?
- New Head Coach Doug Marrone and new Offensive Coordinator Nathanial Hackett were both at Syracuse with Nassib, whose stock has fluctuated drastically in recent weeks. He has a strong arm, won't be phased by those harsh Buffalo conditions and is familiar with the system. It seems like a great fit and one that is destined to happen. The question then is whether the Bills reach for him in the first round, in a Vikings for Christian Ponder type move, or do the intelligent thing and either wait until the second round, or at the very least, trade into the latter half of the first round for him. Do I believe that he is a franchise quarterback? Honestly, I'm not sure. He has a powerful arm, a quick release and shows upside. However he lacks athletic ability and Buffalo's offensive line could have him running for his life. I see a little Drew Brees in him with the obvious exception that Nassib's accuracy needs serious refining. I think he could be a good fit for the Bills but I'd be lying if I said I considered him the best QB in this class. Of course this could all be irrelevant if they give a higher grade to Geno Smith as he is certainly in play here as well, or someone else like Tyler Wilson, E.J. Manuel or even Matt Barkley.
- There are some who believe the Bills might reach for a receiver like Cordarrelle Patterson, or boost their pass rush by finding someone to play opposite Mario Williams (in this case it would be Barkevious Mingo as he is the best available prospect). What I can say with certainty is that there is no way that Buffalo doesn't take a quarterback with one of their top two picks and it will depend entirely on how their board stacks up on draft day. Will they do the intelligent thing as the Bengals did two years ago by taking talent first round, and an average but reliable signal caller second? Or will they do what teams like the Jaguars regret by reaching for need in the first round? I think my pick explains where I stand on those questions.
If this is how the top eight picks pan out New York fans will be jumping up and down. Unfortunately for them, it's probably not happening. If the Raiders cut Palmer, he's not getting past them and on the off chance that he does somehow make it past that third pick, the Eagles are right there at four. If the Jets want him, they are probably going to have to trade up. Otherwise, they could use a pass rusher, a guard or a receiver. The other option, is that if Smith is gone, they could take the guy I have rated highest out of this QB class in E.J. Manuel, who has all the makings of becoming Cam Newton 2.0. He is about as athletic as Smith, with slightly less ability as a passer but with enough potential that I believe a few years down the line, will be the best passer to come out of this class. Or at least the best fantasy player.
Everyone seems dead set on Tennessee going guard first round, so I'll hop on the bandwagon until I come up with something better. Cooper, along with Chance Warmack are each among the best players in this class, but do to the de-emphasizing of interior linemen on draft day, are unlikely to be taken in the top ten. I have them taking Cooper because he is the more athletic of the two and better fits into a zone scheme, where his versatility would make him a potential Pro Bowl. Mingo, CB Xavier Rhodes, TE Tyler Eifert and S Kenny Vaccaro are each distinct possibilities as well but Cooper/Warmack are the best players on the board and would fill the void left by Steve Hutchinson on day one.
This is another fan favorite but I admit, it makes a lot of sense. Philip Rivers has been getting killed behind that joke they call an offensive line and its cost San Diego the playoffs the last few years. Johnson has flown up draft boards since the Senior Bowl and is oozing potential. They could also address the interior with one of the top guards and while it hasn't been mentioned much, WR Tavon Austin would be an intriguing underneath receiver for Rivers to play with.
This team is desperate to find help at corner after losing Vontae Davis and Sean Smith the last two years respectively. Richard Marshall is coming off a back surgery as well. They made some nice additions to the receiving corps with Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson and gave Ryan Tannehill a reliable go to target in Dustin Keller. The offensive line has some holes along the interior and need to find a tackle to play opposite last year's second round selection, Jonathan Martin but are in decent shape otherwise. Defensively, they brought in Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler but could still use a pass rusher to take some of the pressure off of Cameron Wake, as Jared Odrick is limited. Ultimately their immediate need is pretty straight forward but should an elite talent like Star Lotelelei catch their eye, or Lane Johnson fall to them I would not be surprised to see the pick go in one of those directions either.
Back to back Florida State guys? I like it. The loss of Michael Bennett leaves a major hole along the defensive line. Werner, whose stock has fallen since the combine, still has the look of a potentially elite player as a 4-3 end. The signing of Dashon Goldson pairs him with rising star Mark Barron to form one of the best safety tandems in football. Unfortunately the same can't be said of the perimeter of their secondary where they are another team in desperate need of corner help after trading away Aqib Talib last season and Ronde Barber's contract expiring. Eric Wright is coming off a year riddled with injury and suspension and may still be cut. This pick could go either way but it would be a reach for Johnthan Banks or Desmond Trufant.
- Of course this could all change if they manage to trade for Darrelle Revis.
The Panthers draft room will be singing kumbaya if Lotulelei slips this far. If healthy he might be the best player in this class and he fills a major need for Carolina, whose interior line play in 2012 was abysmal. If he's off the board, Sheldon Richardson would be another great fit. Otherwise, getting a receiver to play opposite Steve Smith and finding some linemen to keep Cam upright are also possibilities. Having brought in Drayton Florence and D.J. Moore as well as re-signing Captain Munnerlyn (best name in football) stabilized their corners but they lack any elite talent and could use an enforcer at safety so you have to think that Kenny Vaccaro will garner consideration. Ultimately, the upside of guys like Lotulelei or Richardson would simply be too high to pass on.
With Rob Ryan switching the Saints to a 3-4, they have a ton of personnel issues to address, most strikingly is the need for legitimate pass rushers as Junior Gallete and Martez Wilson hardly qualify. Broderick Bunkley can play the nose temporarily but they'll need to find a long term solution somewhere in this draft. Signing Keenan Lewis solidified the corners but they need safety help after this defense's historically pitiful season last year. Vaccaro and Richardson will have to be looked at but DT and S are deep enough that value can be found in the middle rounds. That much can't be said of 3-4 rush backers as Mingo is the last elite prospect on my board.
St. Louis hasn't had any kind of receiving threat since the days of Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Just as you thought Sam Bradford might have something to work with, Danny Amendola bolted for New England and Brandon Gibson took his talents to South Beach. Worst of all, Steven Jackson was released and is now fighting for a ring with the Falcons. With the skill positions in total flux, this team desperately needs a playmaker. Tavon Austin fits that bill better than anyone in this class. He has the versatility to play anywhere on the field and would takeover in the slot where Amendola left off. They could also dress the interior of their line by pairing Chance Warmack with Jake Long or snag Vaccaro to patrol the secondary. In this case they'll use the first of their two first round picks on Austin who is a risk to hope falls to 22. A team this strapped for weapons can't afford to take that kind of chance.
Where to begin?
- The Steelers have accumulated quite a laundry list of needs the last few weeks and unfortunately, there is no clear choice as to which position to address with their first pick. No running back in this class is worth a first round pick, the receivers have question marks, Vaccaro lacks the star potential you look for in a first round safety, and everyone seems to forget that the Steelers drafted the heir apparent to James Harrison three years ago and seem perfectly content with Jason Worilds moving forward. Larry Foote can't play forever, Steve McClendon, who I'm a huge fan of by the way, is still unproven and what about some lesser talked about possibilities- a tight end to diversify the offense or a guard should Cooper or Warmack fall? Ziggy Hood is entering his final year under contract and perhaps his last in Pittsburgh if he can't step up in 2013. Some people are concerned about the loss of Keenan Lewis-I'm not, and anyone who thinks the Steelers would draft a corner first round clearly have not done their homework. Lewis was solid last year but I maintain that Cortez Allen has higher upside as a playmaker, has plenty of room for refinement and I trust William Gay in the nickel more than most.
- What we're left with is the reality that this is the perfect year to take the best player available and in this case that man is Arthur Brown, who is the top inside linebacker in this class. Even when many considered Manti Te'o a top ten prospect (I was among them-damn groupthink), there were some more intelligent voices out there lobbying for Brown. Consider me convinced. He flies on tape, plays bigger than he is, has a relentless motor and never shies away from a hit. He has a nose for the ball, was a two time team captain at Kansas State and a film junky with the kind of work ethic coaches love.
- If I were to play devil's advocate here I'd point out that Brown likely fits as a Mack in a 3-4 and Lawrence Timmons already has that spot down. He would need to bulk up a bit if he is expected to take on NFL sized interior linemen. In addition, the Steelers drafted a guy with a similar skill set in last year's third rounder Sean Spence, but with his health in question, Brown remains a distinct possibility.
In a DeCastro-like fall, Chance Warmack falls into the Cowboys lap who shouldn't waste any time handing their card to Roger Goodell. I can't think of a better scenario for Dallas who are in need of help along the interior and could use a punishing inside presence in the run game. Again, Kenny Vaccaro will be passed on.
It seems like the Giants have been looking for a long term answer at tight end since the loss of Jeremy Shockey. Nineteen might be a little high but put him on an offense that already features one of the best receiving tandems in football and watch the sparks fly. As always they could use a presence to anchor the middle of the defense but with Arthur Brown off the board, the only other linebackers worth consideration are Alec Ogletree, Manti Te'o and Kevin Minter, none of whom are worth the risk this high in my opinion. The loss of Umenyiora hurts and given Justin Tuck's inconsistency last year, another pass rusher is a possibility, but the only guys available in this range are Datone Jones and Damontre Moore, who could fall to the mid second round depending on your perspective.
- Eifert is a luxury pick but one that could put the Giants over the top. He's worth the risk. Besides, they've been winning without linebackers for years, why would it be any different next year? It all comes down to Eli Manning so why not get him another toy to play with?
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The Bears are in an awkward spot here. Their biggest needs are tackle, guard, tight end and linebacker. All the elite prospects at those positions are gone in this scenario. After signing D.J. Williams and James Anderson, the need at linebacker isn't as great but neither are long term solutions. Chicago fans have learned the hard way the last two years just how important a healthy Jay Cutler is, as his injuries have cost them the playoffs twice now. The next best tackle available is D.J. Fluker but I don't see him as a franchise tackle who could protect Jay Cutler's blindside. He seems like a guy who would play purely on the right side. Both of the elite guards are gone and there is no way they reach for Zach Ertz here.
- In spite of everything that has happened the last few months, Te'o is still a very talented prospect. He improved on his 40 time at his Pro Day and appears to have re-solidified himself as a first round pick. While I wouldn't want the Steelers taking him this high, I think a lack of options forces Chicago to take a guy they might not have planned for.
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Would you believe the Bengals are actually in a position for a luxury pick? They resigned all the right players and it looks as though Andre Smith will join that list sometime this week. They could use safety help so Vaccaro is again in play, but like the teams before them, they will likely attempt to fill that void in the middle rounds. In a very Marvin Lewis-like move, the Bengals again take a chance on a guy with off field issues but who would fit in well at weakside linebacker alongside Rey Mauluga and Vontaze Burflict.
- The Rams land their man in Vaccaro to shore up the secondary. While a guy like D.J. Fluker could be in play to line up opposite Jake Long, I'm not a fan of taking a guy with his limited versatility this high. Its possible that Jeff Fisher and Co. could decide to double up on receiver and take a guy like Cordarrelle Patterson or Keenan Allen who are both good compliments to Austin.
- They missed on Tavon Austin but will be just as happy to land Patterson who can line up across Greg Jennings to make a formidable pair for Christian Ponder/Matt Cassel. They've already got Kyle Rudolph and the best running back in the game and in a matter of about two months this team's artillery of skill positions will have become one of the best in the game. Minnesota can fill one of their defensive needs with their second pick.
- Next to the Steelers, the Colts might have the toughest pick to forecast this year. You could argue that they have needs at almost ten different positions, despite having signed a plethora of free agents to fill those voids, none appear to be long term fixes.
- They signed Gosder Cherilus to help up front but the interior line stands to be improved. They could use a reliable running back but that probably won't be addressed until the middle rounds and if they were in a position of luxury, could use a third receiving threat to play with Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. Defensively, though they brought in Aubrayo Franklin to compete at the nose, signed Erik Walden and Lawrence Sidberry to man the edges of Coach Pagano's 3-4 and added Greg Toler as an experienced nickel corner, none are real difference makers. With Dwight Freeney gone and the only other experienced pass rusher Robert Mathis, 32 years old and clearly on the decline, this is their most glaring need.
- Moore had the look of a top five pick before the combine and still has real potential as a pass rusher. He'll need to learn to play without his hand in the dirt which makes this pick all the more risky, but Moore is arguably the best player on the board and he fits a need.
- Other options would be to address the defensive line and took at Sheldon Richardson, Jesse Williams or Sylvester Williams. Should they find a receiver of their liking that they think would be a good fit, it wouldn't surprise me to see them target a guy like Keenan Allen if he is available.
- While they would rather land a linebacker here, my top one available is Kevin Minter who have a second round grade on. It makes far more sense to take Richardson who not only addresses a need, but is the best player available as well.
- This pick will depend on whether the Packers see Jones as a fit in their 3-4. At 280 lbs. he's sort of caught between a 3 technique DE and an oversized OLB. Having drafted Nick Perry last year to play opposite Clay Matthews this pick only makes sense if he can bulk up to play with his hand in the dirt. Otherwise, some have pegged Green Bay has a possible landing spot for Eddie Lacy, but I don't see them reaching for a back this high. They could use a center so keep an eye out for Barrett Jones in the second round.
- Will this finally be the year that the Texans find someone to take some of the heat off of Andre Johnson? He's not getting any younger and is going into his 11th season. If not they could also address the offensive line with someone like Fluker or Justin Pugh. Like I pointed out earlier, Kevin Minter would be a reach here so if they intend to address inside linebacker it will likely come in the middle rounds. They were prepared for the departure of OLB Connor Barwin as they took Whitney Mercilus with their top pick in 2012. Allen may well be the best receiver in this class and wouldn't be expected to produce immediately.
- Despite this team's success last season, with the exception of Von Miller, the front seven is an absolute mess. FaxGate lost them Elvis Dumervil so they now have a glaring need at defensive end opposite Miller, though its likely they will end up signing Dwight Freeney or John Abraham as a replacement. D.J. Williams departed for Chicago and Keith Brooking is 37 years old. They brought in Terrance Knighton to man one of the two defensive tackle spots but there is still room for improvement over the inept Kevin Vickerson. After watching their safeties pitiful attempts to slow down Joe Flacco in the playoffs, you have to think one of their early picks will address this. Mike Adams has no business as a starter in this league which is where the hard hitting Matt Elam comes into play. I also like Jonathan Cyprien here, who has flown up boards and is considered by some to be the best safety prospect after Vaccaro. All this without even mentioning the fact that Champ Bailey's days are numbered and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is only there on a one year deal. It wouldn't surprise me to see Denver use their first four or five picks exclusively on the defensive side of the ball.
- Who'd have thought the Patriots would be a team in desperate need of a receiver? The signing of Adrian Wilson will allow Devin McCourty to move back to corner opposite Aqib Talib so the secondary is in pretty good shape, though it wouldn't hurt to add some depth in the middle rounds. They could use some sort of pass rusher, whether that's along the interior or at a rush backer, but I don't see the value matching up at this point. Hopkins has jumped up boards lately and appears to have pushed his way into the back half of the first round. If he falls to New England you can bet he'll be on their radar.
- I wouldn't put it past them to snag Eifert if available. Tony Gonzalez might be back for next season but given that he flirted with retirement again, you have to think 2013 will be it. They have needs at defensive end and cornerback as well so Trufant makes the most sense. Johnthan Banks is another option at corner, depending on your preference.
- The loss of Dashon Goldson is a big one and Donte Whitner let up more touchdowns than any other safety in football in 2012. Cyprien is another guy with upside whose stock has risen lately. There are reports that teams like Carolina might be interested in taking him in the top fifteen range. Should this be the case, San Francisco may also look to cornerback as they no longer appear to be in the running for Nnamdi Asomugha. Banks would be the top man available in that case.
- For a defending Super Bowl champ, this team sure has a lot of needs. They lost both their starting inside linebackers, both safeties, their most important receiver, their center, their no. 2 cornerback and could use a tackle to protect the "best quarterback in football's" blindside. They suddenly have huge voids in leadership and a ton of holes to fill. They'll start by addressing their biggest loss of this offseason, by drafting Minter who is somehow supposed to fill the shoes left by Ray Lewis. I still don't think he's worth a first round pick, but need trumps value in this case as the Ravens are desperate.
- Eric Brill
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