Thursday, July 26, 2012

TOP 10 TIGHTS ENDS

Today we're looking at tights ends in part three of my positional power rankings. If you haven't yet, take a look at parts one and two, on the Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs.

As with the other positions, these rankings incorporate all aspects of play so as to best consider the demands of the position and rank accordingly.  I realize there were a couple of guys last year who put up phenomenal receiving numbers but if they can't block that's going to hurt them.

Guys who play with elite quarterbacks, or who are on teams with such good offensive lines that they are rarely asked to stay in and block, are going to see their stock drop.

What I'm looking for are players who I think would replicate their production anywhere. Dominant guys who are more than just a product of this high flying passing league we've become. Its not always about numbers and that is perhaps the biggest thing to remember. Now, I'm not going to count stats against a player by any means, I'm simply justifying putting those who are more well rounded higher, and those who are simply receiving threats lower.

Originally I was thinking I'd look at this the way I ranked the defensive backs, where it was essentially if I were putting together a team for one game, who would I most want? The problem is that a tight end is often times a direct correlation of the offense they are in. For example, a tight end in Green Bay, New England or New Orleans, will not be asked to do the same things as one in Baltimore, Jacksonville or Minnnesota. The former teams, run spreads where the tight end is an every down receiver, whereas the latter run offenses that revolve around their running backs. So a tight end there is used more for blocking and usually receives more out of play action or on 3rd down.

Therefore it wouldn't be practical to talk about who I'd want for one game, because that would depend on who the other players around him were. How good is the quarterback? Are we a passing juggernaut or a team built around the running game? You see there would simply be to many variables to consider.

So unfortunately, I'm having difficulty quantifying how I ranked these. It's truly a culmination of everything I've mentioned. I suppose the easiest way to explain is that I asked the following questions of each player:

1) Are they a one trick pony? (Just a receiver)
2) Are they the product of a great quarterback?
3) Could they succeed on most teams? (Possibly even improve on other teams)
4) As always distractions on/off the field don't help.
5) Imagine them on the best team and then again on the worst team. Guys who you could see doing (decently) well on bad teams are likely better rounded.
6) If I were building a team and everyone were required to use their first round pick on a tight end, who would I take? (I know what I said above, but parts of this aspect do hold merit)

Point is, this isn't (entirely) fantasy football. This is a measure of the best tight ends and that requires a number of variables to be weighed.

Honorable Mentions:

Tony Gonzalez (Falcons): Past his prime but still very productive. He'll go down as the greatest tight end of all time and deservedly so, but I no longer consider him elite. Hopefully this is the year he finally wins his first playoff game, because I expect 2012 to be his curtain call.

Fred Davis (Redskins)- Should have a great fantasy season but isn't a real good blocker. Chris Cooley being healthy again doesn't help either. Still, he should be a great target for RG3 this season because let's face it, Washington's weapons on the outside aren't exactly dangerous.

#10 Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots)
Thus far in his career he has been a product of Tom Brady's arm. He's never been a number one so I have difficulty including him in the top ten. I have no doubt he could succeed on a team like New Orleans or Green Bay but outside that, I don't trust his blocking ability. He'd be a nice slot receiver for any quarterback to have, but at this point I wouldn't feel right about putting him higher. Again, tremendous asset for the Patriots, but at the moment, I don't think he's done enough to prove he deserves higher. I will say that with defenses likely putting more attention on Gronk in 2012, he could end up posting some very impressive numbers. Who knows? It wouldn't shock me if he actually had the better year statistically of the two. Perhaps he'd do better without having to compete with Gronk for targets, but we wont know until Gronk gets hurt or Hernandez is shipped off to a new team.

#9 Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers) 
STOP DROPPING THE FOOTBALL! Finley might be the most athletic tight end in the game in addition to being the biggest underachiever. There is no excuse that a man with his talent, on an Aaron Rodgers led offense, should be as big a letdown as he has been thus far in his career. He is in the mold of Jimmy Graham but between injuries and apparent laziness he has yet to put it to use. Finley must prove himself in 2012, because so far, all he has been is a waste of talent. He makes this list based on potential and the fact that I believe he has the ability to top this list one day.

#8 Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions)
Pettigrew is still young and improving. He proved that he can be very productive when playing with a capable quarterback. He is an elite receiving tight end but will need to continue improving his blocking before moving any higher. Coming off a season in which he caught 83 passes, Pettigrew proved he was worthy of the first round pick the Lions used on him. As long as Matt Stafford stays healthy, Pettigrew will continue to produce at a high level.

#7 Heath Miller (Pittsburgh Steelers)
I swear, this is only like a 20% homer pick. What any Steelers fan can attest to, is that Pittsburgh's offensive line has been horrendously bad for the last five years... meaning Miller's prime. You see he was so often needed in protection that he wasn't much of a threat in the receiving game. That doesn't mean he can't do it, just that he's been needed elsewhere. The difference in 2012, comes down to two things. The first, is that the addition of Todd Haley will balance the play calling and should lead to an increase in play action. More play action should mean better use of Miller on 3rd down and in the red zone. Not to mention, one of the first things that Haley talked about when he came to the Steelers was how much he liked Miller. Just saying.

The second is that our offensive line should be much better this year. Just look at the difference between last year and now. Protecting the blind side last year was Max Starks who was so overweight he was cut and missed the first month of the season before being brought back out of desperation. This year, he should be ready to go by week one until Mike Adams is ready to step in. At right tackle, Marcus Gilbert played last year without having had an offseason, and the little bit of prep he got in training camp, he slacked off anyway. This year should be a different story now that he has some experience and has gotten legitimate coaching. The guards this year will feature soon-to-be All Pro David DeCastro and Willie Colon, who should have been playing along the interior for the last couple years and has finally made the switch. Of course Maurkice Pouncey is already excellent, but last year he made the Pro Bowl on name alone. His play was mediocre but that can be attributed to the lack of help next to him, and lingering injuries.

Moral of the story, Heath gets to be used in the passing game. His blocking was already some of the best among tight ends but now he gets to show off his hands. He's been underrated his entire career and I think 2012 could be his best year yet. Obviously there are a number of variables involved, but Miller could be great on most teams and is as well rounded a tight end as anyone.

Yes his summary was long, we're called The Burgh' Report for a reason.

#6 Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals) 
He had a great year, but I worry about a sophomore slump for Andy Dalton. Regardless, Gresham is an up and coming tight end who has shown he has a strong balance of blocking ability and receiving talent. He could succeed on most teams, so while not the best receiving tight end in the game nor the best blocking one, he is well rounded enough that he is deserving of this spot. What should excite Bengal fans is that he is still young (he just turned 24 last month) and improving.


#5 Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints)
I bet he puts up better numbers than Gronk in 2012. In fact, I bet he has the best statistical season of all tight ends in 2012. But that doesn't make him the best as far as I'm concerned. Graham is the perfect tight end for Drew Brees and those two will make magic as long as they're together. My concern is that I don't consider him a good blocker, and despite his amazing receiving totals, he remains extremely inexperienced. As he continues to learn and improve, he will move up, but for now, I think of him as a very large receiver, more so, than a well rounded tight end. In addition, there are only a handful of teams where he could post even half the totals he does in New Orleans. Not that being considered the fifth best tight end in football after just two years is that insulting...


#4 Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys)

Witten defines well rounded. He has the perfect balance of receiving talent and blocking. Though he missed the Pro Bowl in 2011 after making it every year since 2004, he still posted his fifth straight season of at least 79 receptions and 942 yards. His consistency is unquestioned and its why you can bet he'll have another great year in 2012. I'm not concerned with his age (turned 30 in May), or his health as he has missed just one game in his career (his rookie season). He honestly could have been anywhere from fifth to first and I wouldn't really argue with you. At this point its really apples and oranges when picking these guys because they are so close together. My lone criticism of Witten, and what holds him back is simply that I don't consider his ceiling as high some of the others. He's been so good already that I just cant imagine him improving drastically enough to move much higher on this list in the future. On the other hand I doubt he moves much further down either, given how high his floor is.

#3 Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers)
His nagging injuries are really the only concern moving forward. When healthy he's incredible and this could be a huge year for him given San Diego's lack of talent on the outside, but his days as the best may be behind him. Despite the recent injuries, he has made the Pro Bowl every year since 2004 and over that time has never had less than seven touchdowns. He was a full participant in offseason workouts which is a good sign and if he is able to maintain that health, he'll remind everyone why this time last year, he topped these rankings.

#2 Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)
I can't say I call many tight ends clutch, but Davis deserves it after his performance against the Saints in the playoffs last year. I can imagine him on a bad offense with a poor quarterback and still doing well, because he's already on a team like that. Hell, he's been on a team like that his entire career. As well as the 49ers played last year their offense was not the reason for it. Their job was simply to not turn the ball over while scoring as much as they could. Which meant a whole lot of field goals. If Alex Smith can improve in the red zone, Davis should see more shots his way in the endzone. I expect a career year for him, but more because of the improvement of the play around him. Keep in mind, that it wasn't just Smith whose had to deal with that rotating door of offensive coordinators throughout his career, Davis has as well. And now that Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have actually had an offseason to work with these guys, this team is only going to continue to improve. Davis was already an elite talent, combining his blocking and receiving abilities as well as just about anyone. Hopefully that proves especially true in 2012.


#1 Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots)

Remember what I said at the top about guys who are one trick ponies, or who are strictly receiving threats? Well Gronk aint one of 'em. He's actually on the cusp of being considered an elite blocker. Normally I'd be apprehensive about putting a man with just two years of experience at the top, but this is no one year wonder. Sure there's a case to be made that he is a product of Belichick's system and Brady's arm, but at the end of the day, he and Graham redefined the gold standard for receiving tight ends. I highly doubt he replicates those numbers from last year but he'll still be very productive because no one can cover him on their own. Safeties are too small, and linebackers aren't fast enough. Opposing coaches will do all they can to contain him this season but he's still a virtual lock for 1000 yards, ten touchdowns and a Pro Bowl appearance. There aren't many receivers I can say that about, let alone tight ends. He's going to be great for a long time.

Snubs: Gonzalez, Davis, Owen Daniels (Texans), Jared Cook (Titans), Marcedes Lewis (Jaguars), Dustin Keller (Jets), Kellew Winslow (Seahawks), Tony Moeaki (Chiefs), Zach Miller (Seahawks), Chris Cooley (Redskins), Brent Celek (Eagles) Dallas Clark (Buccaneers) 

Next Up: Pass Rushers

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