Oklahoma City's path through the Western Conference was relatively easy through the first
two rounds. They swept the defending champion Mavericks, then defeated the Lakers with relative ease in the semi-finals. Their real test began in the conference finals when they faced a San Antonio squad that was 8-0 in the playoffs, and riding an 18 game winning streak, dating back to the regular season. The Spurs quickly
improved on that mark, going up 2-0 in the series; a lead many, including myself, deemed insurmountable. Sure enough though, the Thunder snapped San Antonio's then 20 game winning streak, and took the next four for their own, stunning NBA fans nationwide.
Miami on the other hand, faced a more difficult journey to the NBA finals. After handling the New York Knicks easily, they faced an upstart Indianapolis team that turned heads when they took a 2-1 series lead in the semi finals. The Heat were in a hole and facing an early exit, just two losses away from going home, again without a trophy. Fortunately, they fought hard against a physical Pacer team and were able to take the next three games, earning a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second straight year. Prior to the series, few thought that Boston would make for much of a challenge, given their age and lack of talent in the face of Miami's big three. At first, this notion seemed deathly accurate, as the Heat
were up 2-0, LeBron was taunting the Celtics, while fans called for the sweep. But in keeping with the theme of the conference finals, that gritty Boston team did what they'd done all year: fought through the adversity, and won the next three games. Those same fans and analysts began to turn on Miami and said Boston would win the
series. For LeBron, it seemed to much to handle to head home without a ring for the umpteenth time in his career, and in game 6, he played with a fire in his eye, few thought he was capable of producing. In his 45 point outing, the Heat buried the Celtics, and with the series tied, they were headed back to Miami for a game seven, few had expected. In it, the Celtics were competitive until the 4th quarter, but ultimately, between LeBron's 31 and the return of Chris Bosh, it proved to much for a veteran Boston team that will head into the offseason with personnel questions across the board. Though not how I had originally suspected, I correctly predicted that the Heat would win in seven. LeBron James was
huge all series, whereas Dwayne Wade struggled throughout, but in game seven, Miami's big three really came alive at the perfect time and Wade helped to seal off both victories. The Heat had a more challenging road to the Finals,
but what matters is that they got there.
Now into the details of who wins and why. First of
all the Thunder made their journey to the Finals with ease going 12-3 while the
Heat went 12-6, which may seem like a small difference but every game contributes to a
team’s fatigue. Wade has had no time to rest and focus on his ailing knee while Bosh was already forced to return early from his abdominal strain. They'll be coming
into the Finals on just two days rest while the Thunder will have had six days to
recover. Small details, I know, but everything counts when we're talking about the Finals.
The reason why the Heat and Celtics
series went to seven games was because LeBron couldn't do it all by himself. He
put up at least 25 points in every game that series, yet they were on the brink
of elimination, twice. As a unit they lacked secondary scoring in their loses, and Wade
was a borderline non-factor. Though I hate to ask it, have the Heat’s bench players ever
been much of a factor? The answer is no. LeBron was forced to try to do it all
himself, and that’s why the series was so difficult. He was without his two main counterparts and its an accepted truth that when Wade and LeBron play
off each other, they're at their best. So what happens if the same problems reoccur
against the Thunder? I have to imagine it could make for a short series as the Thunder are a much deeper team. Be it James Harden off the bench, 5-time NBA champion Derek Fisher, or Nick Collison, a solid role player who can play forward or center. Compared to Miami, who has who? Norris
Cole? Mike Miller? The former is an average point guard who rarely puts points on the board, while the latter's lone job is to hit threes, yet seems to consistently do the opposite.
As far as the starters go, at point guard, its Russell Westbrook vs. Mario Chalmers. When Westbrook takes good shots and plays more the role of a pure point guard, he dominates games, not to mention he is the most athletic man at his position, in the game. At shooting guard, its Thabo Sefolosha vs. Dwayne Wade, where obviously the latter is the better player, but with his bad knee he'll likely not be his usual self. At small forward, Kevin Durant against LeBron James, pure scorer against the best player in the world. What a matchup this will be for NBA fans everywhere! I expect them both to dominate, and though Durant may put up more points, I expect James will have the better all-around series. For now, we'll call that matchup a tie. However, I can't say the same thing for the remainder of Miami's starting lineup. Bosh may play center or power forward, or Joel Anthony could start, with Udonis Haslem coming off the bench while Oklahoma City will have Serge Ibaka down low, who is one of the better defenders in the paint. Kendrik Perkins will start at center and though not much of an offensive threat, he is a capable defender and rebounder. The Thunder have a better starting five than the Heat, and more depth on the bench, but most people acknowledge that, so let's get down to who will win and why.
As far as the starters go, at point guard, its Russell Westbrook vs. Mario Chalmers. When Westbrook takes good shots and plays more the role of a pure point guard, he dominates games, not to mention he is the most athletic man at his position, in the game. At shooting guard, its Thabo Sefolosha vs. Dwayne Wade, where obviously the latter is the better player, but with his bad knee he'll likely not be his usual self. At small forward, Kevin Durant against LeBron James, pure scorer against the best player in the world. What a matchup this will be for NBA fans everywhere! I expect them both to dominate, and though Durant may put up more points, I expect James will have the better all-around series. For now, we'll call that matchup a tie. However, I can't say the same thing for the remainder of Miami's starting lineup. Bosh may play center or power forward, or Joel Anthony could start, with Udonis Haslem coming off the bench while Oklahoma City will have Serge Ibaka down low, who is one of the better defenders in the paint. Kendrik Perkins will start at center and though not much of an offensive threat, he is a capable defender and rebounder. The Thunder have a better starting five than the Heat, and more depth on the bench, but most people acknowledge that, so let's get down to who will win and why.
The key for the Thunder defensively
is to hold the Heat to mostly jump shots. When the Heat are attacking the rim
and getting to the foul line they're hard to beat, but with Serge Ibaka down low - the
best shot blocker in league, averaging 3.3 blocks in the post season - he
may take the paint away from Miami. The Heat need to attack him early and get him in foul trouble, because when he is sitting, they'll have a better chance of success, attacking the hoop. Its the same concept as the one used in their previous series against Boston, with Kevin Garnett off the floor, they played far better. The Heat are not a great jump shooting team and if you force them to
take shots from outside the paint their offense will be inconsistent and far less productive. Don’t get me wrong, they'll still make
their fair share of jumpers, especially with Chris Bosh back, but this is the
best strategy for Oklahoma City, defensively. Offensively the speed of the Thunder will get to the Heat. Miami just beat an injured, slow and aging Celtics team
and may at first, have trouble adjusting to a faster paced game. If the Thunder
come up big defensively and force turnovers, their transition game will work to
perfection.
You know what you’re going to get out of Durant each game, as he’s averaging 27.8 points per contest. The big question mark for Oklahoma City is Russell Westbrook. They need him to play more of a "pure" point guard role and distribute. Obviously he should still attack the rim, and take his fair share of shots, but when he starts taking more than Durant, problems occur. Westbrook has been averaging 21.1 points per game and is certainly an offensive threat but if he can put up those numbers without turning the ball over as often, the Thunder will be hard to stop. Durant is the best scorer on the court for Oklahoma City, and it has to stay that way if they intend to win. Luckily, if Westbrook is struggling they can use their sixth man James Harden at point, or even Fisher if needed. I mentioned Serge Ibaka's talent defensively, but he’s been consistently shooting over 50% and can impact the offensive game in a pinch. He had a huge 26 point night against the Spurs in Game 4 and though he'll likely never go 11-11 again, even 8-11 would be a tremendous contribution. Miami can't match up against the Thunder’s array of offensive talent, and if the majority of the Heat's offense continues to come from one source, in Lebron, Oklahoma City will be able to handle their offense without much difficulty. If LeBron is the only player on the court putting up strong offensive numbers for Miami, this series may not last long. Their lone hope is that the momentum they created in the last two games of the Boston series carries over in a big way. Unfortunately, thats easier said than done, and my guess is that LeBron will go ring-less for at least another year as the Heat lose in back-to-back finals appearances.
You know what you’re going to get out of Durant each game, as he’s averaging 27.8 points per contest. The big question mark for Oklahoma City is Russell Westbrook. They need him to play more of a "pure" point guard role and distribute. Obviously he should still attack the rim, and take his fair share of shots, but when he starts taking more than Durant, problems occur. Westbrook has been averaging 21.1 points per game and is certainly an offensive threat but if he can put up those numbers without turning the ball over as often, the Thunder will be hard to stop. Durant is the best scorer on the court for Oklahoma City, and it has to stay that way if they intend to win. Luckily, if Westbrook is struggling they can use their sixth man James Harden at point, or even Fisher if needed. I mentioned Serge Ibaka's talent defensively, but he’s been consistently shooting over 50% and can impact the offensive game in a pinch. He had a huge 26 point night against the Spurs in Game 4 and though he'll likely never go 11-11 again, even 8-11 would be a tremendous contribution. Miami can't match up against the Thunder’s array of offensive talent, and if the majority of the Heat's offense continues to come from one source, in Lebron, Oklahoma City will be able to handle their offense without much difficulty. If LeBron is the only player on the court putting up strong offensive numbers for Miami, this series may not last long. Their lone hope is that the momentum they created in the last two games of the Boston series carries over in a big way. Unfortunately, thats easier said than done, and my guess is that LeBron will go ring-less for at least another year as the Heat lose in back-to-back finals appearances.
Final Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder in 6.
By Kevin Antosz
By Kevin Antosz
Agree or Disagree feel free to comment or tweet us at
@TheBurghReport
No comments:
Post a Comment