Week 3 Predictions

-Eric Brill

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 18-14

KC: 29
PHI: 26

HOU: 27
BAL: 17

NYG: 34
CAR: 24

GB: 30
CIN: 23

STL: 21
DAL: 23

CLE: 7
MIN: 31

TB: 23
NE: 24

ARI: 17
NO: 26

SD: 27
TEN: 20

DET: 38
WAS: 31

ATL: 24
MIA: 20

BUF: 19
NYJ: 16

JAC: 0
SEA: 41

IND: 24
SF: 34

CHI: 31
PIT: 17

OAK: 13
DEN: 38

Week 2 Predictions

Eric Brill

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 9-7

NYJ: 3
NE: 31

STL: 17
ATL: 34

CLE: 24
BAL: 31

CAR: 28
BUF: 24

MIN: 23
CHI: 26

WAS: 24
GB: 38

TEN: 20
HOU: 23

MIA: 17
IND: 20

DAL: 30
KC: 24

SD: 27
PHI: 31

DET: 26
ARI: 16

NO: 41
TB: 24

DEN: 34
NYG: 27

JAC: 17
OAK: 24

SF: 33
SEA: 26

PIT: 24
CIN: 17

Week 1 Predictions

BAL: 27
DEN: 34

NE: 38
BUF: 17

SEA: 20
CAR: 27

CIN: 24
CHI: 23

MIA: 17
CLE: 20

MIN: 30
DET: 33

OAK: 13
IND: 23

KC: 27
JAC: 13

ATL: 31
NO: 34

TB: 41
NYJ: 10

TEN: 10
PIT: 20

GB: 38
SF: 34

ARI: 17
STL: 16

NYG: 27
DAL: 31

PHI: 31
WAS: 10

HOU: 34
SD: 24

2013 NFL Season Predictions

-Eric Brill

AFC EAST
1) New England Patriots (10-6)
2) Buffalo Bills (7-9)
3) Miami Dolphins (6-10)
4) New York Jets (1-15)

People who think that the Dolphins are a wild card contender are high. Overspending on Mike Wallace does not make you a double digit win team. EJ Manuel could well be the offensive rookie of the year, and CJ Spiller should go off, but there are still questions surrounding the defense after the injury to Stephon Gilmore and their already porous run defense. The Jets are just the worst thing ever.

AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
2) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
3) Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
4) Cleveland Browns (7-9)

I don't think this has ever happened, but I do in fact have a three way tie atop the AFC North slated for 2013. I predict that they will each split their respective series' but the difference will come from the Browns getting a win against Baltimore and Cincinnati but get swept at the hands of the black and gold, giving the Steelers the tie break for the division title. Cleveland is headed in the right direction and in a different division they might have been able to compete for a wild card spot.

AFC SOUTH
1) Houston Texans (10-6)
2) Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
3) Tennessee Titans (7-9)
4) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

Its the Texans and then everybody else. The Colts overachieved last year, and are a pile of mediocrity at every position except quarterback. I actually think the Titans could surprise some people this year, but it depends entirely on whether Jake Locker can prove he deserves to be a starting QB in the NFL. They have the pieces in place on offense everywhere else. The Jaguars are still the Jaguars, though Blaine Gabbert looked half decent in preseason and Maurice Jones-Drew appears to be healthy again.

AFC WEST
1) Denver Broncos (14-2)
2) Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
3) San Diego Chargers (6-10)
4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)

The Broncos are the best team in football, in the worst division in football. While I think Andy Reid will prove an excellent hire, the idea that the Chiefs are the sexy pick to win a wild card spot this year has gone too far. The Chargers are a mess and Philip Rivers is regressing. Keep an eye on the Raiders week 14 matchup with the Jets, as that may well be the deciding factor in who gets the top pick in the 2014 draft.

NFC EAST
1) Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
2) New York Giants (10-6)
3) Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)
4) Washington Redskins (5-11)

I'm higher than most on the Cowboys this year. I like the Giants to rebound as they always do and think that Chip Kelly could potentially work wonders with Michael Vick and Co. My gut says that the Redskins are letting RG3 twist the media in his favor and are rushing him back to the field too soon. It could be a long year in Washington, especially given the difficulty of their schedule.

NFC NORTH
1) Green Bay Packers (13-3)
2) Chicago Bears (8-8)
3) Detroit Lions (6-10)
4) Minnesota Vikings (6-10)

This is the Packers division. Even if Adrian Peterson does somehow manage to eclipse 2500 yards (and I'm rooting for him), it's difficult to envision them getting back to double digit wins. The Bears could go either way, but right now the losses of Lovie Smith and Brian Urlacher, the installment of a new offensive scheme and my general discomfort over all things Cutler related, have them on the wrong side of the playoff bubble. One player does not a team make and the Lions have to prove they can play defense and run the ball before they can even sniff the playoffs again.

NFC SOUTH
1) New Orleans Saints (13-3)
2) Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
4) Carolina Panthers (7-9)

Watch out for the Saints. Sean Payton is back with a vengeance and ready to unleash offensive hell on opposing defenses. I expect a career year out of Brees so while the Falcons remain a legitimate contender, they will have to do so through the wild card. I like the direction that the Bucs and Panthers are headed but the difficulty of the NFC, particularly among the other two teams in this division, will have them sitting at home come January. Look for Cam Newton to improve vastly this year, as Carolina is a potential sleeper pick to squeak out a wild card spot if all goes correctly.

NFC WEST
1) San Francisco 49ers (11-5)
2) Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
3) Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
4) St. Louis Rams (5-11)

The Seahawks missing the playoffs are my bold prediction. I love Russell Wilson the guy, but as a QB, he is still developing. They have limited targets in the passing game and can't expect Marshawn Lynch to carry them through a difficult schedule in a rising division. I like Arizona to rebound this year, but Carson Palmer isn't taking this team to the playoffs anytime soon, while the Rams have been vastly overrated of late. The 49ers remain the most capable of handling a loaded NFC in 2013.

WILD CARD ROUND

AFC
(6) Ravens over (3) Texans
(4) Steelers over (5) Bengals

NFC
(3) 49ers over (6) Giants
(5) Falcons over (4) Cowboys

DIVISIONAL ROUND

AFC
(1) Broncos over (6) Ravens
(4) Steelers over (2) Patriots

NFC
(1) Saints over (5) Falcons
(2) Packers over (3) 49ers

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

AFC
(1) Broncos over (4) Steelers

NFC
(1) Saints over (2) Packers

SUPER BOWL
Broncos over Saints

INDIVIDUAL AWARDS
MVP: Drew Brees
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees
Defensive Player of the Year: Luke Kuechly
Offensive Rookie of the Year: LeVeon Bell
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Tyrann Mathieu
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton
Comeback Player of the Year: Robert Griffin III

STATISTICAL LEADERS
Passing Yardage: Drew Brees (5300)
Passing Touchdowns: Drew Brees (47)
Rushing Yardage: Adrian Peterson (1700)
Rushing Touchdowns: Steven Jackson (19)
Receptions: Randall Cobb (115)
Receiving Yardage: Dez Bryant (1600)
Receiving Touchdowns: Jimmy Graham (18)
Sacks: DeMarcus Ware (21)
Interceptions: Patrick Peterson (8)
Tackles: Luke Kuechly (200 total)

Mock Draft 2.0

-Eric Brill

Happy Draft Day boys and girls! For us crazies out there, tonight is better than Christmas, Hannukah and our birthdays combined as we've been waiting for this since April 28th of last year. This is my final mock, with an obnoxious amount of trades, as we have only minutes to go until the Chiefs are officially on the clock. I'm shaking with excitement as I write this, so let's get to it.

 1.  ERIC FISHER (OT, CENTRAL MICHIGAN)

 2. DION JORDAN (DE, OREGON)

 3. LUKE JOECKEL (OT, TEXAS A&M)

*Trade: Cardinals (Picks: 7, 38 & 140) and Raiders (Pick: 3)

 4. DEE MILLINER (CB, ALABAMA)

 5. LANE JOHNSON (OT, OKLAHOMA) 

**Trade: Chargers (Picks: 11 and 45) and Lions (Pick: 5)

 6. TAVON AUSTIN (WR, WEST VIRGINIA)

***Trade: Jets (Picks: 9 and 72) and Browns (Pick: 6)

 7. SHARRIF FLOYD (DT, FLORIDA) 

*Trade: See above

 8. STAR LOTULELEI (DT, UTAH)

****Trade: 49ers (Picks: 31, 93 and a 2014 1st Round Pick) and Bills (Pick: 8)

 9. GENO SMITH (QB, WEST VIRGINIA)

***Trade: See above

 10. JONATHAN COOPER (G, UNC)

 11. EZEKIAL ANSAH (DE, BYU)

**Trade: See Above

 12. TYLER EIFERT (TE, NOTRE DAME)

 13. BARKEVIOUS MINGO (DE, LSU)

 14. SHELDON RICHARDSON (DT, MISSOURI)

 15. JARVIS JONES (OLB, GEORGIA) 

16. CHANCE WARMACK (G, ALABAMA)

 17. XAVIER RHODES (CB, FSU)

*****Trade: Falcons (Picks: 30, 60 & 127) and Steelers (Pick: 17)

 18. KENNY VACCARO (S, TEXAS)

 19. MANTI TE'O (ILB, NOTRE DAME)

******Trade: Vikings (Picks: 23 & 83) and Giants (Pick: 19 & 152)

  20. ARTHUR BROWN (ILB, KANSAS STATE)

  21. EDDIE LACY (RB, ALABAMA)

  22. DEANDRE HOPKINS (WR, CLEMSON)

 23. DJ FLUKER (OT, ALABAMA)

******Trade: See Above

  24. BJOERN WERNER (OLB, FSU)

  25. SYLVESTER WILLIAMS (DT, UNC)

  26. DATONE JONES (DE UCLA)

  27. JUSTIN HUNTER (WR, TENNESSEE) 

  28. TANK CARRADINE (OLB, FSU) 

 29. MATT BARKLEY (QB, USC)

*******Trade: Jaguars (Picks: 33 and 98) and Patriots (Pick: 29 & 162)

 30. ROBERT WOODS (WR, USC)

*****Trade: See Above

 31. RYAN NASSIB (QB, SYRACUSE)

****Trade: See Above

  32. JONATHAN CYPRIEN (S, FIU)

*********Trade: Panthers (Picks: 44 and 2014 3rd Rounder) and Ravens (Pick: 32)

Big Board: Top Prospects By Position

-Eric Brill

I'm pressed for time so you'll have to forgive me for the brevity of my explanations on these posts tonight. Kevin Colbert said in a pre-draft interview the other day that there were about 150 guys on their board. This list is of my top guys by position, relative to the Steelers needs and system, but only really covers prospects that will go in the first three rounds (there are a few exceptions). Therefore there are no quarterbacks on this list because the Steelers aren't going there until Saturday at the earliest. Bear in mind, these aren't rankings of who the best guys are by position, they are ranked on their value, based on where they will likely be drafted, their relative fit to the Steelers needs and system as well as on their overall talent.

Running Back:
1) Montee Ball
2) Eddie Lacy
3) Marcus Lattimore
4) Le'Veon Bell

I'm higher on Ball than most anyone else. Since the draft process began, I've had this feeling in my gut that this guy would make for one hell of a Steeler. He's a poor man's Adrian Peterson in the open field, with the type of "grinder" mentality that made Curtis Martin into a Hall of Famer. If the Steelers nabbed him in the second or third round, I would be ecstatic. Among the rest of the media, Lacy is the consensus top back in this class. He might be, and he would certainly fit the Steelers scheme so I would be happy to see him in a Pittsburgh uniform, but only if he slipped to us in the second, which I don't see happening. If only Marcus Lattimore were healthy...

Wide Receiver:

1) DeAndre Hopkins

2) Robert Woods

3) Tavon Austin

4) Justin Hunter

5) Cordarrelle Patterson

6) Keenan Allen

7) Stedman Bailey

8) Aaron Dobson

I'll bet you haven't seen receiver rankings like this, huh? I think Austin is a ridiculously overrated, system receiver, who simply is not good enough to live up to the position he will likely be drafted at. Let someone else reach for him and the Steelers can target guys like Hopkins, Woods, Hunter or Allen, who can actually play on the outside. Patterson's lack of experience and football savvy, terrify me. Unless he slips to the second, I'm not even considering him. Bailey is a guy I really like as a potential third rounder, while Dobson is a freak on the outside. Both would be guys to consider in the third round. Ultimately the Steelers will add a receiver somewhere with their first four picks. I don't think anyone in this class is worth the seventeenth overall pick, so unless the Steelers trade down, or out of the first round, I think this position will likely be addressed Friday night. Ideally, a team like the Falcons or 49ers tries to trade up and the Steelers nab Hopkins or Woods, in that high-twenties, early-thirties range.

Tight End:

1) Tyler Eifert

2) Gavin Escobar

3) Jordan Reed

This one is pretty straightforward. I like Eifert a lot, but he's not the guy I want us taking at 17. He's not going to make it out of the first round, and the Steelers simply can't afford a luxury pick this year. I like Escobar as an athletic, Aaron Hernandez wannabe, to compliment Heath Miller and give Ben another big target to play with. If he is there in the third, especially if the Steelers trade back and stockpile picks, I would take him. Reed is very intriguing as a slot TE, who is a bit of tweener as a former receiver. He's seems like the kind of guy Todd Haley could utilize well, given his unique list of traits.

Offensive Line:

1) Luke Joeckel

2) Eric Fisher

3) Chance Warmack

4) Jonathan Cooper

5) Lane Johnson

6) Barrett Jones

7) DJ Fluker

8) Larry Warford

9) Mike Farrell

I'd be surprised if the Steelers took a linemen earlier than the fifth round. They simply have too many needs elsewhere to afford another high round pick on a linemen. Which is unfortunate because this class of linemen is one of the best in recent years. If Warmack or Cooper were there at 17 and the Steelers called one of their names, I wouldn't be complaining, I just think that ultimately, they will all be well gone by that point. My favorite player in this entire draft is Barrett Jones. We don't really need a linemen, but his versatility, intelligence and experience are unparalleled in 2013. He had a 4.0 GPA at Alabama, was a three time national champion and has been one of the nation's best linemen each of the last three years. More impressive than anything is the fact that he did so at three different positions. If not for injury concerns, he would be a first round prospect. If the Steelers could get him with a mid rounder (I hope you're starting to get the idea that I'm really hoping that the Steelers trade back/out of the first round) I would probably jump up and down and scream about as much as I did last year when we stole David DeCastro. I include Mike Farrell because he went to my high school and I'll be rooting for him to crack a roster sometime Saturday night as an undrafted free agent.

Defensive Line:

1) Star Lotulelei

2) Sharrif Floyd

3) Sheldon Richardson

4) Datone Jones

5) Sylvester Williams

6) Margus Hunt

7) Alex Okafor

8) David Bass

I'm putting this as one group as this is the least likely area the Steelers are to address. There are a handful of guys who could fit the scheme, but given the issues at virtually every other position, I have a tough time imagining the Steelers add a guy until the later rounds, likely a Joe Kruger type of guy with potential as a three technique. The resigning of Steve McLendon, as well as the retention of Alameda Ta'amu, make it very unlikely the Steelers consider nose tackle at all. Margus Hunt is the only realistic option as a potential second rounder, who reminds me a little of a J.J. Watt as a 3-4 DE. Otherwise, keep an eye on David Bass as mid-late rounder, with great versatility along the line, who could become a starter a few years down the line.

Outside Linebacker:

1) Jarvis Jones

2) Barkevious Mingo

3) Dion Jordan

4) Ezekial Ansah

5) Bjoern Werner

6) Tank Carradine

7) Corey Lemonier

8) Jamie Collins

9) Cornelius Washington

Assuming the Steelers don't trade down tonight, I think the pick will be Jones, who is the best 3-4 OLB prospect since Von Miller. He has a couple red flags between his questionable work ethic and potentially career threatening injury (I know he was cleared but I'm not entirely convinced- I mean, the guy who did evaluated him was found dead on Monday, days before he was supposed to face a lawsuit from former CB Marcus Trufant). Regardless, the guy oozes potential and has the look of a perennial Pro Bowler. If he is already taken, I think the Steelers trade down and address edge rusher in the mid rounds with a guy like Lemonier, Collins or Washington. I sincerely doubt that Ansah, Mingo or Jordan fall far enough for the Steelers to consider, but they would all be tweeners on the outside, who are unfamiliar standing up. Ansah especially scares the hell out of me as a top five pick. The guy is still learning how to play this game and some team is about to take him assuming he'll become the next JPP, based on what? His African lineage? Its ridiculous how highly he's been overrated. Conversely, its interesting to see how a poor combine dropped Werner from a top five lock, to a fringe first rounder. I'm a big fan of his and would perfectly happy seeing him in Pittsburgh, but only if the Steelers did so after trading down.

Inside Linebacker:

1) Arthur Brown

2) Manti Te'o

3) Khasseeme Greene

Let me preface this by saying that no inside linebacker in this class warrants top twenty consideration. In addition, the Steelers resigned Larry Foote to a three year deal, brought back Stevenson Sylvester and may I remind you, do still have Sean Spence, last year's third rounder, despite his repairing knee. That said, there is some real potential, among the guys I listed. I'm a big fan of each, just only if they fall to the second round, or if the Steelers traded back to the end of the first. This includes Te'o who would fit the Steelers system well as a replacement at the BUCK spot.

Defensive Backs:
1) Dee Milliner
2) Xavier Rhodes
3) Kenny Vaccaro
4) Matt Elam
5) Desmond Trufant
6) Jonathan Cyprien
7) Phillip Thomas
7) Eric Reid
8) Blidi Wreh-Wilson

I would have separated this group into safeties and cornerbacks, but I have a theory. The Steelers brought Xavier Rhodes in for a visit a few weeks ago and it seemed odd that the Steelers would consider a corner in the first round compared to their needs elsewhere. Part of this may have simply been routine, but it got me thinking about the possibility of converting him into a safety, which I think would make him the best one in this class. He has good coverage skills, is an aggressive tackler who prefers to play in the box. He can line up all other field and has not only the size to cover the slot, but the speed as well. While its unlikely that the Steelers take this route, I wanted to propose the idea. There is no chance the Steelers don't draft a safety at some point, its just a matter of where they feel the value matches up the best.

Notable Ommisions: All quarterbacks, as the Steelers simply are not going to take one. Alec Ogletree has too many red flags for me to feel comfortable to even consider. Damontre Moore has likely fallen all the way to the late second round, early third, after being considered a top five pick back in February. Guys like Joseph Randle, Andre Ellington and Giovanni Bernard may be considerations at running back, but I'm just not a fan. I'm rooting for Tyrann Mathieu as a pro, just not as a member of the Steelers. He's simply too fragile of a player in a year where we can't afford to swing and miss. Kyle Long is vastly overrated and no one would be pushing his stock if he weren't Howie's son.

Mock Draft 1.0

Welcome back boys and girls. With pro days a plenty, the free agent market settling and me with some free time, I think its about time to start bombarding you with draft notes and mocks. I fully intend to start posting my own positional rankings but I think it would be more fun to kick things off with an initial mock draft to get everyone back in the mood. Without further ado,

 1.  LUKE JOECKEL (OT, TEXAS A&M)

While I think what Andy Reid and Co. are hoping to trade down, I doubt they will manage to pull that off. 

The reality of this class, as anyone who has spent even fifteen minutes studying it can tell you, is that this is the worst year in recent memory to have a top pick. There is no cut and dry top prospect, no quarterback who stands above the rest. 

While Kansas City has had, in my opinion, an excellent offseason thus far, they are no where near set, as far what they will do with this pick. Securing receiver Dwayne Bowe, franchising tackle Branden Albert and trading for a franchise quarterback in Alex Smith were all good moves for an organization coming off an abysmal 2012 season. The way I look at this, is that they will speak to most any prospect garnering top ten attention. They will continue to act as if they have no idea who they will take with this pick and pray that one of the teams picking in that 3-9 range will trade up, likely in an attempt at landing a guy like Geno Smith, who, as you will see later on, I don't even consider to be the best QB in this class. Because I don't believe any team will want to pay the inevitably steep price that the Chiefs are going to ask for, they will be left with choosing between a handful of guys, the favorite amongst most media pundits, as you're probably aware is Joeckel. 

It doesn't sound as if they believe they can ink Albert to a long term deal protecting Smith's blind side, and they already cut ties with RT Eric Winston, who is still on the market as of this writing. I think shoring up the line is a must, especially if they only have Albert for one more year. Joeckel has the look of a perennial Pro Bowler, having drawn comparisons to Jake Long. Some believe that Central Michigan OT, Eric Fisher is actually the better prospect so I would not be the least bit surprised if the Chiefs took that route either, as both are top tier options. 

Recently, some murmuring has begun that Sharrif Floyd, the DT from Florida will also be in the conversation. I have a tough time believing that it will be him, as the Chiefs have used first round picks on defensive linemen in three of the last five years (recently departed Glenn Dorsey, 5th overall in 2008, Tyson Jackson 3rd overall in 2009 and Dontari Poe, 11th overall in 2012). Its not as if Floyd is a shoe in Pro Bowler and in other years I don't think he'd even be in top ten consideration. Until further notice, it appears that Joeckel is the most likely candidate for a rebuilding Chiefs team.

 2. DION JORDAN (DE, OREGON)

An athletic freak who blew up the combine and would fit in well as the Leo in Gus Bradley's new system. For years the talk in Jacksonville has been about finding a reliable pass rusher and it appears that Jordan fits the bill. He is tall, fast and is being compared to Aldon Smith (though I certainly hope he is more well rounded). His versatility allows him to line up all over the defense, is big enough to cover tight ends and is quick enough to handle zone responsibilities in either the flat or over the middle. He will need to be coached up but he has the potential to become a top rusher at the next level. Admittedly, the Jaguars could go a couple different directions here. Should they prefer Ezekial Ansah, Barkevious Mingo or even Jarvis Jones, they could certainly go that route and still improve upon their last ranked pass rush. 

This teams has needs across the board, including offensive and defensive tackle, as well as CB, should they deem Dee Milliner worthy, or even looking to a QB, if the new regime in Jacksonville agrees that Blaine Gabbert is a total bust. While I don't think that any QB is worth taking this high, it certainly would not be the first time a team has reached and I maintain that we we'll see at least two go in the top ten before this is all said and done. I think Jaguars fans are tired of watching their team either play it safe, or reach and bust. This year, they need to find a difference maker and I think that that guy is Jordan. Otherwise, the whispers will continue that this organization is destined for a move.

 3. SHARRIF FLOYD (DT, FLORIDA)

This pick could change drastically depending on what the Raiders ultimately do with Carson Palmer, who is reportedly refusing to cut his $15.3 million cap hit. If Oakland cuts him outright, they'll save a little less than six million in 2013, but would create roughly nine million in dead money. Luckily, they would absorb that dead money hit entirely this year, and be free of the disastrous ordeal altogether after that. It seems likely that they will try to trade him first for a late round pick to a QB needy team, perhaps Buffalo or Arizona, as a stop gap starter next year, but I think that ultimately, no team will want to take on that kind of contract and Palmer will be cut before April 25th. They aren't going to let this approach the level of drama that we saw in Cincinnati two years ago, but this certainly isn't helping to dispel the shadows that have been cast on Palmer's one promising career. 

Until the deal is done, I have them taking Floyd to replace unrestricted free agent Richard Seymour, and hopefully shore up their front line but again, given the likelihood that we've seen the end of the Palmer experiment in Oakland, I fully expect that by the time I release my second mock, I'll have Geno Smith here because there is no way in hell they're going into week one with Terrelle Pryor under center.

 4. DEE MILLINER (CB, ALABAMA)

You have to think that new Head Coach Chip Kelly would like to bring in his former star pass rusher Dion Jordan if given the chance, but as I have him lotted to Jacksonville, he'll settle for the best corner in this class. With Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of the picture, the Eagles secondary is in a state of flux. Having watched Cary Williams in Baltimore the last few years, I hardly consider he or recently acquired Bradley Fletcher, long term solutions. In comes Milliner, who can be a day one starter and has the look of a perennial Pro Bowler. He's a safe pick who fills a need and has upside, so unless Jordan is here or they believe that Ansah is worth a look, this one seems pretty cut and dry. 

Unlike some, I don't see them going offensive line here. Keep in mind that this team will get Jason Peters and Todd Herremans back from injury next season and there are reports that they are in talks with Eric Winston as well. So while Eric Fisher warrants consideration, I don't think he'll be the pick. While I'm not a fan of Geno Smith, I wouldn't put it past them to take him if he is available, though I think it would be a far better idea to trade back into the end of the first round and try to take E.J. Manuel instead, who I believe offers the greatest upside for a team looking for an athletic signal caller. If I'm the Eagles, I'm letting someone else reach for Smith while I snag the best player on the board in Milliner.

 5. EZEKIAL ANSAH (DE, BYU)

Just as the Eagles missed on their guy in Jordan, so too do the Lions miss on their top choice in Milliner. Instead I think their decision will come down to two guys, more specifically, two positions. What's interesting here is that Detroit lost both their starting tackles (Gosder Cherilus bolted for Indy and Jeff Backus retired) as well as both their starting defensive ends (Kyle Vanden Bosch was cut while Cliff Avril joined the Seahawks) so in my opinion I think it comes down to Ezekial Ansah and Eric Fisher. Depending on your mindset, the Lions could take the man who offers JPP-type upside as a pass rusher or take the man some believe to be the best and safest player in this draft, in Fisher. I'm torn at the moment so this pick will likely flip flop a few times over the next couple weeks but for now I'm going with the game changer in Ansah.

 6. JARVIS JONES (OLB, GEORGIA)

Poor Brownies. They're hoping to land Jordan, Milliner or Ansah and in this version they're all gone. Eric Fisher makes no sense after taking Mitchell Shwart last year and there are no receivers worth this high a pick so I have them taking the guy I'm hoping somehow slips to 17 in Jarvis Jones. Before the combine he was considered by many to be the best player in this class, but a poor showing at his Pro Day and lingering questions about a diagnosis of spinal stenosis that could potentially shorten his career have put his positioning as a top prospect in question. Though as a Steelers fan I hope he doesn't end up in Cleveland, he would undoubtedly be a great fit. His relentless motor and untapped potential make him the best 3-4 OLB prospect in this class. Its just a matter of which team will take the risk.

 7. ERIC FISHER (OT, CENTRAL MICHIGAN)

Recent reports have said that the Cardinals do not consider any quarterback in this class to be worthy of the seventh overall pick. Given that there is plenty of value to be had in the second round and that by my own estimate, the difference between the best quarterback and the fifth best quarterback is miniscule, not reaching for one is a great move. I realize that they are desperate to find someone who can Fitzgerald the ball (I'm among them), reaching for a guy and being stuck looking for another one in a few years is simply not the answer. Instead they'll take Fisher, who can man the blind side of whoever the poor bastard is who does end up under center in Arizona, as a Pro Bowler for the next decade. 

 8. RYAN NASSIB (QB, SYRACUSE)

Bet you haven't seen this one yet, huh? 

New Head Coach Doug Marrone and new Offensive Coordinator Nathanial Hackett were both at Syracuse with Nassib, whose stock has fluctuated drastically in recent weeks. He has a strong arm, won't be phased by those harsh Buffalo conditions and is familiar with the system. It seems like a great fit and one that is destined to happen. The question then is whether the Bills reach for him in the first round, in a Vikings for Christian Ponder type move, or do the intelligent thing and either wait until the second round, or at the very least, trade into the latter half of the first round for him. Do I believe that he is a franchise quarterback? Honestly, I'm not sure. He has a powerful arm, a quick release and shows upside. However he lacks athletic ability and Buffalo's offensive line could have him running for his life. I see a little Drew Brees in him with the obvious exception that Nassib's accuracy needs serious refining. I think he could be a good fit for the Bills but I'd be lying if I said I considered him the best QB in this class. Of course this could all be irrelevant if they give a higher grade to Geno Smith as he is certainly in play here as well, or someone else like Tyler Wilson, E.J. Manuel or even Matt Barkley. 

There are some who believe the Bills might reach for a receiver like Cordarrelle Patterson, or boost their pass rush by finding someone to play opposite Mario Williams (in this case it would be Barkevious Mingo as he is the best available prospect). What I can say with certainty is that there is no way that Buffalo doesn't take a quarterback with one of their top two picks and it will depend entirely on how their board stacks up on draft day. Will they do the intelligent thing as the Bengals did two years ago by taking talent first round, and an average but reliable signal caller second? Or will they do what teams like the Jaguars regret by reaching for need in the first round? I think my pick explains where I stand on those questions.

 9. GENO SMITH (QB, WEST VIRGINIA)

If this is how the top eight picks pan out New York fans will be jumping up and down. Unfortunately for them, it's probably not happening. If the Raiders cut Palmer, he's not getting past them and on the off chance that he does somehow make it past that third pick, the Eagles are right there at four. If the Jets want him, they are probably going to have to trade up. Otherwise, they could use a pass rusher, a guard or a receiver. The other option, is that if Smith is gone, they could take the guy I have rated highest out of this QB class in E.J. Manuel, who has all the makings of becoming Cam Newton 2.0. He is about as athletic as Smith, with slightly less ability as a passer but with enough potential that I believe a few years down the line, will be the best passer to come out of this class. Or at least the best fantasy player.

 10. JONATHAN COOPER (G, UNC)

Everyone seems dead set on Tennessee going guard first round, so I'll hop on the bandwagon until I come up with something better. Cooper, along with Chance Warmack are each among the best players in this class, but do to the de-emphasizing of interior linemen on draft day, are unlikely to be taken in the top ten. I have them taking Cooper because he is the more athletic of the two and better fits into a zone scheme, where his versatility would make him a potential Pro Bowl. Mingo, CB Xavier Rhodes, TE Tyler Eifert and S Kenny Vaccaro are each distinct possibilities as well but Cooper/Warmack are the best players on the board and would fill the void left by Steve Hutchinson on day one.

 11. LANE JOHNSON (OT, OKLAHOMA)

This is another fan favorite but I admit, it makes a lot of sense. Philip Rivers has been getting killed behind that joke they call an offensive line and its cost San Diego the playoffs the last few years. Johnson has flown up draft boards since the Senior Bowl and is oozing potential. They could also address the interior with one of the top guards and while it hasn't been mentioned much, WR Tavon Austin would be an intriguing underneath receiver for Rivers to play with.

 12. XAVIER RHODES (CB, FSU)

This team is desperate to find help at corner after losing Vontae Davis and Sean Smith the last two years respectively. Richard Marshall is coming off a back surgery as well. They made some nice additions to the receiving corps with Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson and gave Ryan Tannehill a reliable go to target in Dustin Keller. The offensive line has some holes along the interior and need to find a tackle to play opposite last year's second round selection, Jonathan Martin but are in decent shape otherwise. Defensively, they brought in Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler but could still use a pass rusher to take some of the pressure off of Cameron Wake, as Jared Odrick is limited. Ultimately their immediate need is pretty straight forward but should an elite talent like Star Lotelelei catch their eye, or Lane Johnson fall to them I would not be surprised to see the pick go in one of those directions either.

 13. BJOERN WERNER (DE, FSU)

Back to back Florida State guys? I like it. The loss of Michael Bennett leaves a major hole along the defensive line. Werner, whose stock has fallen since the combine, still has the look of a potentially elite player as a 4-3 end. The signing of Dashon Goldson pairs him with rising star Mark Barron to form one of the best safety tandems in football. Unfortunately the same can't be said of the perimeter of their secondary where they are another team in desperate need of corner help after trading away Aqib Talib last season and Ronde Barber's contract expiring. Eric Wright is coming off a year riddled with injury and suspension and may still be cut. This pick could go either way but it would be a reach for Johnthan Banks or Desmond Trufant. 

Of course this could all change if they manage to trade for Darrelle Revis.

 14. STAR LOTULELEI (DT, UTAH)

The Panthers draft room will be singing kumbaya if Lotulelei slips this far. If healthy he might be the best player in this class and he fills a major need for Carolina, whose interior line play in 2012 was abysmal. If he's off the board, Sheldon Richardson would be another great fit. Otherwise, getting a receiver to play opposite Steve Smith and finding some linemen to keep Cam upright are also possibilities. Having brought in Drayton Florence and D.J. Moore as well as re-signing Captain Munnerlyn (best name in football) stabilized their corners but they lack any elite talent and could use an enforcer at safety so you have to think that Kenny Vaccaro will garner consideration. Ultimately, the upside of guys like Lotulelei or Richardson would simply be too high to pass on.

 15. BARKEVIOUS MINGO (OLB, LSU)

With Rob Ryan switching the Saints to a 3-4, they have a ton of personnel issues to address, most strikingly is the need for legitimate pass rushers as Junior Gallete and Martez Wilson hardly qualify. Broderick Bunkley can play the nose temporarily but they'll need to find a long term solution somewhere in this draft. Signing Keenan Lewis solidified the corners but they need safety help after this defense's historically pitiful season last year. Vaccaro and Richardson will have to be looked at but DT and S are deep enough that value can be found in the middle rounds. That much can't be said of 3-4 rush backers as Mingo is the last elite prospect on my board.

 16. TAVON AUSTIN (WR, WEST VIRGINIA)

St. Louis hasn't had any kind of receiving threat since the days of Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Just as you thought Sam Bradford might have something to work with, Danny Amendola bolted for New England and Brandon Gibson took his talents to South Beach. Worst of all, Steven Jackson was released and is now fighting for a ring with the Falcons. With the skill positions in total flux, this team desperately needs a playmaker. Tavon Austin fits that bill better than anyone in this class. He has the versatility to play anywhere on the field and would takeover in the slot where Amendola left off. They could also dress the interior of their line by pairing Chance Warmack with Jake Long or snag Vaccaro to patrol the secondary. In this case they'll use the first of their two first round picks on Austin who is a risk to hope falls to 22. A team this strapped for weapons can't afford to take that kind of chance.

 17. ARTHUR BROWN (ILB, KANSAS STATE)

Where to begin? 

The Steelers have accumulated quite a laundry list of needs the last few weeks and unfortunately, there is no clear choice as to which position to address with their first pick. No running back in this class is worth a first round pick, the receivers have question marks, Vaccaro lacks the star potential you look for in a first round safety, and everyone seems to forget that the Steelers drafted the heir apparent to James Harrison three years ago and seem perfectly content with Jason Worilds moving forward. Larry Foote can't play forever, Steve McClendon, who I'm a huge fan of by the way, is still unproven and what about some lesser talked about possibilities- a tight end to diversify the offense or a guard should Cooper or Warmack fall? Ziggy Hood is entering his final year under contract and perhaps his last in Pittsburgh if he can't step up in 2013. Some people are concerned about the loss of Keenan Lewis-I'm not, and anyone who thinks the Steelers would draft a corner first round clearly have not done their homework. Lewis was solid last year but I maintain that Cortez Allen has higher upside as a playmaker, has plenty of room for refinement and I trust William Gay in the nickel more than most. 

What we're left with is the reality that this is the perfect year to take the best player available and in this case that man is Arthur Brown, who is the top inside linebacker in this class. Even when many considered Manti Te'o a top ten prospect (I was among them-damn groupthink), there were some more intelligent voices out there lobbying for Brown. Consider me convinced. He flies on tape, plays bigger than he is, has a relentless motor and never shies away from a hit. He has a nose for the ball, was a two time team captain at Kansas State and a film junky with the kind of work ethic coaches love. 

If I were to play devil's advocate here I'd point out that Brown likely fits as a Mack in a 3-4 and Lawrence Timmons already has that spot down. He would need to bulk up a bit if he is expected to take on NFL sized interior linemen. In addition, the Steelers drafted a guy with a similar skill set in last year's third rounder Sean Spence, but with his health in question, Brown remains a distinct possibility.

 18. CHANCE WARMACK (G, ALABAMA)

In a DeCastro-like fall, Chance Warmack falls into the Cowboys lap who shouldn't waste any time handing their card to Roger Goodell. I can't think of a better scenario for Dallas who are in need of help along the interior and could use a punishing inside presence in the run game. Again, Kenny Vaccaro will be passed on.

 19. TYLER EIFERT (TE, NOTRE DAME)

It seems like the Giants have been looking for a long term answer at tight end since the loss of Jeremy Shockey. Nineteen might be a little high but put him on an offense that already features one of the best receiving tandems in football and watch the sparks fly. As always they could use a presence to anchor the middle of the defense but with Arthur Brown off the board, the only other linebackers worth consideration are Alec Ogletree, Manti Te'o and Kevin Minter, none of whom are worth the risk this high in my opinion. The loss of Umenyiora hurts and given Justin Tuck's inconsistency last year, another pass rusher is a possibility, but the only guys available in this range are Datone Jones and Damontre Moore, who could fall to the mid second round depending on your perspective. 

Eifert is a luxury pick but one that could put the Giants over the top. He's worth the risk. Besides, they've been winning without linebackers for years, why would it be any different next year? It all comes down to Eli Manning so why not get him another toy to play with?

  20. MANTI TE'O (LB, NOTRE DAME)

The Bears are in an awkward spot here. Their biggest needs are tackle, guard, tight end and linebacker. All the elite prospects at those positions are gone in this scenario. After signing D.J. Williams and James Anderson, the need at linebacker isn't as great but neither are long term solutions. Chicago fans have learned the hard way the last two years just how important a healthy Jay Cutler is, as his injuries have cost them the playoffs twice now. The next best tackle available is D.J. Fluker but I don't see him as a franchise tackle who could protect Jay Cutler's blindside. He seems like a guy who would play purely on the right side. Both of the elite guards are gone and there is no way they reach for Zach Ertz here. 

In spite of everything that has happened the last few months, Te'o is still a very talented prospect. He improved on his 40 time at his Pro Day and appears to have re-solidified himself as a first round pick. While I wouldn't want the Steelers taking him this high, I think a lack of options forces Chicago to take a guy they might not have planned for.

  21. ALEC OGLETREE (LB, GEORGIA)

Would you believe the Bengals are actually in a position for a luxury pick? They resigned all the right players and it looks as though Andre Smith will join that list sometime this week. They could use safety help so Vaccaro is again in play, but like the teams before them, they will likely attempt to fill that void in the middle rounds. In a very Marvin Lewis-like move, the Bengals again take a chance on a guy with off field issues but who would fit in well at weakside linebacker alongside Rey Mauluga and Vontaze Burflict.  

  22. KENNY VACCARO (S, TEXAS)

The Rams land their man in Vaccaro to shore up the secondary. While a guy like D.J. Fluker could be in play to line up opposite Jake Long, I'm not a fan of taking a guy with his limited versatility this high. Its possible that Jeff Fisher and Co. could decide to double up on receiver and take a guy like Cordarrelle Patterson or Keenan Allen who are both good compliments to Austin.

  23. CORDARELLE PATTERSON (WR, TENN)

They missed on Tavon Austin but will be just as happy to land Patterson who can line up across Greg Jennings to make a formidable pair for Christian Ponder/Matt Cassel. They've already got Kyle Rudolph and the best running back in the game and in a matter of about two months this team's artillery of skill positions will have become one of the best in the game. Minnesota can fill one of their defensive needs with their second pick.

  24.  DAMONTRE MOORE (DE TEXAS A&M)

Next to the Steelers, the Colts might have the toughest pick to forecast this year. You could argue that they have needs at almost ten different positions, despite having signed a plethora of free agents to fill those voids, none appear to be long term fixes. 

They signed Gosder Cherilus to help up front but the interior line stands to be improved. They could use a reliable running back but that probably won't be addressed until the middle rounds and if they were in a position of luxury, could use a third receiving threat to play with Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. Defensively, though they brought in Aubrayo Franklin to compete at the nose, signed Erik Walden and Lawrence Sidberry to man the edges of Coach Pagano's 3-4 and added Greg Toler as an experienced nickel corner, none are real difference makers. With Dwight Freeney gone and the only other experienced pass rusher Robert Mathis, 32 years old and clearly on the decline, this is their most glaring need. 

Moore had the look of a top five pick before the combine and still has real potential as a pass rusher. He'll need to learn to play without his hand in the dirt which makes this pick all the more risky, but Moore is arguably the best player on the board and he fits a need. 

Other options would be to address the defensive line and took at Sheldon Richardson, Jesse Williams or Sylvester Williams. Should they find a receiver of their liking that they think would be a good fit, it wouldn't surprise me to see them target a guy like Keenan Allen if he is available.  

  25. SHELDON RICHARDSON (DT MISSOURI)

While they would rather land a linebacker here, my top one available is Kevin Minter who have a second round grade on. It makes far more sense to take Richardson who not only addresses a need, but is the best player available as well. 

  26. DATONE JONES (DE UCLA)

This pick will depend on whether the Packers see Jones as a fit in their 3-4. At 280 lbs. he's sort of caught between a 3 technique DE and an oversized OLB. Having drafted Nick Perry last year to play opposite Clay Matthews this pick only makes sense if he can bulk up to play with his hand in the dirt. Otherwise, some have pegged Green Bay has a possible landing spot for Eddie Lacy, but I don't see them reaching for a back this high. They could use a center so keep an eye out for Barrett Jones in the second round.  

  27. KEENAN ALLEN (WR, CALIFORNIA)

Will this finally be the year that the Texans find someone to take some of the heat off of Andre Johnson? He's not getting any younger and is going into his 11th season. If not they could also address the offensive line with someone like Fluker or Justin Pugh. Like I pointed out earlier, Kevin Minter would be a reach here so if they intend to address inside linebacker it will likely come in the middle rounds. They were prepared for the departure of OLB Connor Barwin as they took Whitney Mercilus with their top pick in 2012. Allen may well be the best receiver in this class and wouldn't be expected to produce immediately. 

  28. MATT ELAM (S, FLORIDA)

Despite this team's success last season, with the exception of Von Miller, the front seven is an absolute mess. FaxGate lost them Elvis Dumervil so they now have a glaring need at defensive end opposite Miller, though its likely they will end up signing Dwight Freeney or John Abraham as a replacement. D.J. Williams departed for Chicago and Keith Brooking is 37 years old. They brought in Terrance Knighton to man one of the two defensive tackle spots but there is still room for improvement over the inept Kevin Vickerson. After watching their safeties pitiful attempts to slow down Joe Flacco in the playoffs, you have to think one of their early picks will address this. Mike Adams has no business as a starter in this league which is where the hard hitting Matt Elam comes into play. I also like Jonathan Cyprien here, who has flown up boards and is considered by some to be the best safety prospect after Vaccaro. All this without even mentioning the fact that Champ Bailey's days are numbered and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is only there on a one year deal. It wouldn't surprise me to see Denver use their first four or five picks exclusively on the defensive side of the ball. 

  29. DEANDRE HOPKINS (WR, CLEMSON)

Who'd have thought the Patriots would be a team in desperate need of a receiver? The signing of Adrian Wilson will allow Devin McCourty to move back to corner opposite Aqib Talib so the secondary is in pretty good shape, though it wouldn't hurt to add some depth in the middle rounds. They could use some sort of pass rusher, whether that's along the interior or at a rush backer, but I don't see the value matching up at this point. Hopkins has jumped up boards lately and appears to have pushed his way into the back half of the first round. If he falls to New England you can bet he'll be on their radar.

  30. DESMOND TRUFANT (CB, WASHINGTON)

I wouldn't put it past them to snag Eifert if available. Tony Gonzalez might be back for next season but given that he flirted with retirement again, you have to think 2013 will be it. They have needs at defensive end and cornerback as well so Trufant makes the most sense. Johnthan Banks is another option at corner, depending on your preference. 

  31. JONATHAN CYPRIEN (SS, FIU)

The loss of Dashon Goldson is a big one and Donte Whitner let up more touchdowns than any other safety in football in 2012. Cyprien is another guy with upside whose stock has risen lately. There are reports that teams like Carolina might be interested in taking him in the top fifteen range. Should this be the case, San Francisco may also look to cornerback as they no longer appear to be in the running for Nnamdi Asomugha. Banks would be the top man available in that case. 

  32. KEVIN MINTER (ILB, LSU)

For a defending Super Bowl champ, this team sure has a lot of needs. They lost both their starting inside linebackers, both safeties, their  most important receiver, their center, their no. 2 cornerback and could use a tackle to protect the "best quarterback in football's" blindside. They suddenly have huge voids in leadership and a ton of holes to fill. They'll start by addressing their biggest loss of this offseason, by drafting Minter who is somehow supposed to fill the shoes left by Ray Lewis. I still don't think he's worth a first round pick, but need trumps value in this case as the Ravens are desperate.

Eric Brill