Thursday, April 25, 2013

Mock Draft 2.0

-Eric Brill

Happy Draft Day boys and girls! For us crazies out there, tonight is better than Christmas, Hannukah and our birthdays combined as we've been waiting for this since April 28th of last year. This is my final mock, with an obnoxious amount of trades, as we have only minutes to go until the Chiefs are officially on the clock. I'm shaking with excitement as I write this, so let's get to it.
Kansas City Chiefs 1.  ERIC FISHER (OT, CENTRAL MICHIGAN)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2. DION JORDAN (DE, OREGON)
Arizona Cardinals 3. LUKE JOECKEL (OT, TEXAS A&M)

*Trade: Cardinals (Picks: 7, 38 & 140) and Raiders (Pick: 3)

Philadelphia Eagles 4. DEE MILLINER (CB, ALABAMA)
San Diego Chargers 5. LANE JOHNSON (OT, OKLAHOMA) 
**Trade: Chargers (Picks: 11 and 45) and Lions (Pick: 5)
New York Jets 6. TAVON AUSTIN (WR, WEST VIRGINIA)
***Trade: Jets (Picks: 9 and 72) and Browns (Pick: 6)
Oakland Raiders 7. SHARRIF FLOYD (DT, FLORIDA) 

*Trade: See above

San Francisco 49ers 8. STAR LOTULELEI (DT, UTAH)

****Trade: 49ers (Picks: 31, 93 and a 2014 1st Round Pick) and Bills (Pick: 8)
Cleveland Browns 9. GENO SMITH (QB, WEST VIRGINIA)
***Trade: See above
Tennessee Titans 10. JONATHAN COOPER (G, UNC)
Detroit Lions 11. EZEKIAL ANSAH (DE, BYU)
**Trade: See Above
Miami Dolphins 12. TYLER EIFERT (TE, NOTRE DAME)
New York Jets 13. BARKEVIOUS MINGO (DE, LSU)
Carolina Panthers 14. SHELDON RICHARDSON (DT, MISSOURI)
New Orleans Saints 15. JARVIS JONES (OLB, GEORGIA) 
St. Louis Rams16. CHANCE WARMACK (G, ALABAMA)

Atlanta Falcons 17. XAVIER RHODES (CB, FSU)

*****Trade: Falcons (Picks: 30, 60 & 127) and Steelers (Pick: 17)

Dallas Cowboys 18. KENNY VACCARO (S, TEXAS)

Minnesota Vikings 19. MANTI TE'O (ILB, NOTRE DAME)

******Trade: Vikings (Picks: 23 & 83) and Giants (Pick: 19 & 152)
Chicago Bears  20. ARTHUR BROWN (ILB, KANSAS STATE)
Cincinnati Bengals  21. EDDIE LACY (RB, ALABAMA)
St. Louis Rams  22. DEANDRE HOPKINS (WR, CLEMSON)
New York Giants 23. DJ FLUKER (OT, ALABAMA)
******Trade: See Above
Indianapolis Colts  24. BJOERN WERNER (OLB, FSU)
Minnesota Vikings  25. SYLVESTER WILLIAMS (DT, UNC)
Green Bay Packers  26. DATONE JONES (DE UCLA)
Houston Texans  27. JUSTIN HUNTER (WR, TENNESSEE) 
Denver Broncos  28. TANK CARRADINE (OLB, FSU) 
Jacksonville Jaguars 29. MATT BARKLEY (QB, USC)
*******Trade: Jaguars (Picks: 33 and 98) and Patriots (Pick: 29 & 162)
Pittsburgh Steelers 30. ROBERT WOODS (WR, USC)
*****Trade: See Above
Buffalo Bills 31. RYAN NASSIB (QB, SYRACUSE)
****Trade: See Above

Carolina Panthers  32. JONATHAN CYPRIEN (S, FIU)
*********Trade: Panthers (Picks: 44 and 2014 3rd Rounder) and Ravens (Pick: 32)

Big Board: Top Prospects By Position

-Eric Brill

I'm pressed for time so you'll have to forgive me for the brevity of my explanations on these posts tonight. Kevin Colbert said in a pre-draft interview the other day that there were about 150 guys on their board. This list is of my top guys by position, relative to the Steelers needs and system, but only really covers prospects that will go in the first three rounds (there are a few exceptions). Therefore there are no quarterbacks on this list because the Steelers aren't going there until Saturday at the earliest. Bear in mind, these aren't rankings of who the best guys are by position, they are ranked on their value, based on where they will likely be drafted, their relative fit to the Steelers needs and system as well as on their overall talent.

Running Back:
1) Montee Ball
2) Eddie Lacy
3) Marcus Lattimore
4) Le'Veon Bell

I'm higher on Ball than most anyone else. Since the draft process began, I've had this feeling in my gut that this guy would make for one hell of a Steeler. He's a poor man's Adrian Peterson in the open field, with the type of "grinder" mentality that made Curtis Martin into a Hall of Famer. If the Steelers nabbed him in the second or third round, I would be ecstatic. Among the rest of the media, Lacy is the consensus top back in this class. He might be, and he would certainly fit the Steelers scheme so I would be happy to see him in a Pittsburgh uniform, but only if he slipped to us in the second, which I don't see happening. If only Marcus Lattimore were healthy...

Wide Receiver:

1) DeAndre Hopkins
2) Robert Woods
3) Tavon Austin
4) Justin Hunter
5) Cordarrelle Patterson
6) Keenan Allen
7) Stedman Bailey
8) Aaron Dobson

I'll bet you haven't seen receiver rankings like this, huh? I think Austin is a ridiculously overrated, system receiver, who simply is not good enough to live up to the position he will likely be drafted at. Let someone else reach for him and the Steelers can target guys like Hopkins, Woods, Hunter or Allen, who can actually play on the outside. Patterson's lack of experience and football savvy, terrify me. Unless he slips to the second, I'm not even considering him. Bailey is a guy I really like as a potential third rounder, while Dobson is a freak on the outside. Both would be guys to consider in the third round. Ultimately the Steelers will add a receiver somewhere with their first four picks. I don't think anyone in this class is worth the seventeenth overall pick, so unless the Steelers trade down, or out of the first round, I think this position will likely be addressed Friday night. Ideally, a team like the Falcons or 49ers tries to trade up and the Steelers nab Hopkins or Woods, in that high-twenties, early-thirties range.

Tight End:
1) Tyler Eifert
2) Gavin Escobar
3) Jordan Reed

This one is pretty straightforward. I like Eifert a lot, but he's not the guy I want us taking at 17. He's not going to make it out of the first round, and the Steelers simply can't afford a luxury pick this year. I like Escobar as an athletic, Aaron Hernandez wannabe, to compliment Heath Miller and give Ben another big target to play with. If he is there in the third, especially if the Steelers trade back and stockpile picks, I would take him. Reed is very intriguing as a slot TE, who is a bit of tweener as a former receiver. He's seems like the kind of guy Todd Haley could utilize well, given his unique list of traits.

Offensive Line:
1) Luke Joeckel
2) Eric Fisher
3) Chance Warmack
4) Jonathan Cooper
5) Lane Johnson
6) Barrett Jones
7) DJ Fluker
8) Larry Warford
9) Mike Farrell

I'd be surprised if the Steelers took a linemen earlier than the fifth round. They simply have too many needs elsewhere to afford another high round pick on a linemen. Which is unfortunate because this class of linemen is one of the best in recent years. If Warmack or Cooper were there at 17 and the Steelers called one of their names, I wouldn't be complaining, I just think that ultimately, they will all be well gone by that point. My favorite player in this entire draft is Barrett Jones. We don't really need a linemen, but his versatility, intelligence and experience are unparalleled in 2013. He had a 4.0 GPA at Alabama, was a three time national champion and has been one of the nation's best linemen each of the last three years. More impressive than anything is the fact that he did so at three different positions. If not for injury concerns, he would be a first round prospect. If the Steelers could get him with a mid rounder (I hope you're starting to get the idea that I'm really hoping that the Steelers trade back/out of the first round) I would probably jump up and down and scream about as much as I did last year when we stole David DeCastro. I include Mike Farrell because he went to my high school and I'll be rooting for him to crack a roster sometime Saturday night as an undrafted free agent.

Defensive Line:
1) Star Lotulelei
2) Sharrif Floyd
3) Sheldon Richardson
4) Datone Jones
5) Sylvester Williams
6) Margus Hunt
7) Alex Okafor
8) David Bass

I'm putting this as one group as this is the least likely area the Steelers are to address. There are a handful of guys who could fit the scheme, but given the issues at virtually every other position, I have a tough time imagining the Steelers add a guy until the later rounds, likely a Joe Kruger type of guy with potential as a three technique. The resigning of Steve McLendon, as well as the retention of Alameda Ta'amu, make it very unlikely the Steelers consider nose tackle at all. Margus Hunt is the only realistic option as a potential second rounder, who reminds me a little of a J.J. Watt as a 3-4 DE. Otherwise, keep an eye on David Bass as mid-late rounder, with great versatility along the line, who could become a starter a few years down the line.

Outside Linebacker:
1) Jarvis Jones
2) Barkevious Mingo
3) Dion Jordan
4) Ezekial Ansah
5) Bjoern Werner
6) Tank Carradine
7) Corey Lemonier
8) Jamie Collins
9) Cornelius Washington

Assuming the Steelers don't trade down tonight, I think the pick will be Jones, who is the best 3-4 OLB prospect since Von Miller. He has a couple red flags between his questionable work ethic and potentially career threatening injury (I know he was cleared but I'm not entirely convinced- I mean, the guy who did evaluated him was found dead on Monday, days before he was supposed to face a lawsuit from former CB Marcus Trufant). Regardless, the guy oozes potential and has the look of a perennial Pro Bowler. If he is already taken, I think the Steelers trade down and address edge rusher in the mid rounds with a guy like Lemonier, Collins or Washington. I sincerely doubt that Ansah, Mingo or Jordan fall far enough for the Steelers to consider, but they would all be tweeners on the outside, who are unfamiliar standing up. Ansah especially scares the hell out of me as a top five pick. The guy is still learning how to play this game and some team is about to take him assuming he'll become the next JPP, based on what? His African lineage? Its ridiculous how highly he's been overrated. Conversely, its interesting to see how a poor combine dropped Werner from a top five lock, to a fringe first rounder. I'm a big fan of his and would perfectly happy seeing him in Pittsburgh, but only if the Steelers did so after trading down.

Inside Linebacker:
1) Arthur Brown
2) Manti Te'o
3) Khasseeme Greene

Let me preface this by saying that no inside linebacker in this class warrants top twenty consideration. In addition, the Steelers resigned Larry Foote to a three year deal, brought back Stevenson Sylvester and may I remind you, do still have Sean Spence, last year's third rounder, despite his repairing knee. That said, there is some real potential, among the guys I listed. I'm a big fan of each, just only if they fall to the second round, or if the Steelers traded back to the end of the first. This includes Te'o who would fit the Steelers system well as a replacement at the BUCK spot.

Defensive Backs:
1) Dee Milliner
2) Xavier Rhodes
3) Kenny Vaccaro
4) Matt Elam
5) Desmond Trufant
6) Jonathan Cyprien
7) Phillip Thomas
7) Eric Reid
8) Blidi Wreh-Wilson

I would have separated this group into safeties and cornerbacks, but I have a theory. The Steelers brought Xavier Rhodes in for a visit a few weeks ago and it seemed odd that the Steelers would consider a corner in the first round compared to their needs elsewhere. Part of this may have simply been routine, but it got me thinking about the possibility of converting him into a safety, which I think would make him the best one in this class. He has good coverage skills, is an aggressive tackler who prefers to play in the box. He can line up all other field and has not only the size to cover the slot, but the speed as well. While its unlikely that the Steelers take this route, I wanted to propose the idea. There is no chance the Steelers don't draft a safety at some point, its just a matter of where they feel the value matches up the best.

Notable Ommisions: All quarterbacks, as the Steelers simply are not going to take one. Alec Ogletree has too many red flags for me to feel comfortable to even consider. Damontre Moore has likely fallen all the way to the late second round, early third, after being considered a top five pick back in February. Guys like Joseph Randle, Andre Ellington and Giovanni Bernard may be considerations at running back, but I'm just not a fan. I'm rooting for Tyrann Mathieu as a pro, just not as a member of the Steelers. He's simply too fragile of a player in a year where we can't afford to swing and miss. Kyle Long is vastly overrated and no one would be pushing his stock if he weren't Howie's son.